Factors Influencing the Enhancement of Earthquake Resilience in Rural Settlements: A Case Study of Nair County

Introduction
Throughout history, rural and urban settlements have consistently emerged in naturally hazardous environments such as floodplains, valleys, low-lying flood-prone areas, lands exposed to volcanic ash and lava, earthquake-prone regions, and similar locations. These settlements have perpetually faced various natural hazards, leading to widespread damage annually. The impacts of these hazards are directly linked to unplanned settlements, which, coupled with issues like improper site selection and settlement establishment near fault lines and flood zones, result in significant casualties and extensive financial losses during natural disasters. Consequently, rural settlements, due to deficiencies in essential infrastructure, exhibit a higher level of vulnerability to hazards compared to urban settlements. Today, governments employ diverse strategies to mitigate the effects of natural hazards. One such approach in confronting environmental hazards and crises is resilience. Regarding resilience to environmental hazards, Iran's environmental conditions and geographical location indicate its exposure to various hazards; approximately 31 out of 40 identified global hazards occur in Iran. Given this, Iran is among the countries highly vulnerable to natural disasters and ranks among the top ten disaster-prone countries globally. Among these, Ardabil Province has experienced several natural hazards in recent years, with floods and earthquakes being the most frequent. According to statistics from the Ardabil Province Crisis Management Office, floods account for 51% and earthquakes 19% of the unforeseen annual incidents in the region. Studies show that four significant and earthquake-prone faults—Bozgush, Dasht-e Moghan, Masouleh, and Rudbar—traverse Ardabil Province, constantly threatening the province and, consequently, Nair County with earthquakes. Therefore, the present research aims to analyze the effective factors in enhancing the resilience of rural settlements in Nair County against earthquakes.
 
Methodology
The present research is "applied" in terms of its objective and "descriptive-analytical" in terms of its nature and method. Data and information were collected through library studies and field surveys. The rural areas of Nair County in Ardabil Province constitute the spatial domain of this research. According to the 2016 census by the Statistical Center of Iran, Nair County has 6,364 households, a population of 20,864, 5 rural districts (dehestans), and 93 inhabited villages. For sampling from the villages of Nair County, four factors were used: 1) population and household count, 2) distance from the main active fault, 3) elevation classification, and 4) geographical distribution by rural district and the status of active and inactive faults. Thirty percent of the 93 inhabited villages (28 villages) were initially selected as the sample. To further reduce sampling error, 2 additional villages were added, increasing the total sample to 30 villages.
 
Findings
The descriptive findings of the research revealed that among the 368 respondents, 59.5% were male and 40.5% were female. Of these, 87.8% were married, and the highest number of respondents were in the 31-40 age group (25%) and the 41-50 age group (21.7%). Regarding literacy and education levels, the largest number of respondents (25.5%) had a diploma, while 15.5% had primary and middle school education. In terms of employment, the majority of respondents (18.2% and 16.8%) were engaged in livestock farming, agriculture, and horticulture. Regarding the respondents' monthly income, the results showed that the largest number (29.6%) earned between 6 to 8 million Tomans, and 21.2% earned between 8 to 10 million Tomans per month. The smallest number (15.8%) earned less than 4 million Tomans per month. Furthermore, concerning residential housing, 20.1% of the rural houses studied were newly built, 24.7% were renovated, 26.1% were dilapidated, and 29.1% represented other types of construction. Therefore, it must be stated that the condition of rural housing in the studied area is not at a standard level and requires special attention from responsible organizations and the public.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
Several factors contribute to enhancing the resilience of rural settlements and villagers against earthquake hazards, including economic, social, infrastructural, environmental, political and legal, institutional, and managerial factors. The results of this research indicated that the identified factors collectively play an effective role, to the tune of 0.491, in enhancing the resilience of rural settlements against earthquakes in the studied area. Moreover, infrastructural factors (with an impact value of 0.346), economic factors (with an impact value of 0.338), and political and legal factors (with an impact value of 0.189) were identified as the most important factors influencing the increase in village resilience against earthquake disasters in Nair County. Among these, the institutional and managerial factor showed the least impact from the perspective of the respondents, with a total impact of -0.517. Thus, the infrastructural factor was recognized as the most important factor in enhancing the resilience of rural settlements against earthquakes. Key elements identified in this regard for increasing the resilience of these settlements in Nair County, Ardabil Province, include: access to hospitals and health centers during an earthquake; access to infrastructural facilities such as safe water, electricity networks, gas, etc.; increased telephone communication with medical centers after an earthquake; the quality and quantity of main and secondary roads during and after an incident; and the planning and development of information networks (development of information networks regarding collective misfortunes, hazards, and unexpected rural events). The second most effective factor is the economic factor, which plays a crucial role in increasing the resilience of villagers. This includes: creating diverse and sustainable incomes with lower water requirements in rural areas; increasing villagers' skills in other professions or jobs besides their primary occupation and encouraging diversification of the rural economy; providing low-interest loans and interest-free loans to earthquake victims and vulnerable villagers; enhancing the ability to regain suitable employment after a crisis; and encouraging people to use loans and facilities for strengthening and renovating rural housing. These are among the most important factors contributing to the increased resilience of villagers against earthquakes in the rural areas of Nair County.