Studying the causes and consequences of regional migration to Isfahan province using grounded theory

Introduction

Migration is undoubtedly one of the most significant socio-economic changes in human history, especially in recent years. With the growth of technology and increased connectivity, we have witnessed an increase in the speed and volume of migration in various forms. For this reason, experts, considering the importance of this phenomenon in demographic and social transformations, have referred to migration as the "third demographic transition" and have named the era the "Age of Migration" to emphasize its significance. Like many other countries, Iran has not been immune to internal migration flows and has witnessed this trend throughout its history. Internal migration in the country has tended towards concentrated population centers and large cities such as Isfahan. A study of internal migration in Iran shows that improvements in public health and the control of infectious diseases have significantly altered Iran’s population over the past century. Coupled with declining fertility rates, internal migration has become an increasingly important factor in shaping Iran’s population dynamics. Consequently, in the current circumstances of the country, internal migration can be considered one of the most significant determinants of population growth rates at the provincial and county levels in Iran. Census data from various periods show high growth rates in large population centers, while less populated areas experience negative and sometimes rapid population decline. For instance, the urban population of Isfahan province accounted for 6.5% of the country's total population in 1996, while the rural population of the province accounted for 4.3%. In 2016, these shares changed to 6.4% for urban areas and 2.9% for rural areas, respectively. This indicates that rural areas in the province have lost their share of the country's population at a rapid pace. A similar trend is observed among Isfahan province, one of the major population centers, and its neighboring provinces, with a significant number of migrants from these provinces move to Isfahan annually. This trend has sometimes resulted in negative and accelerated growth rates in surrounding provinces. Therefore, this research seeks to answer the following questions: "What are the causes and underlying conditions of migration to Isfahan province, and what are the consequences of this migration trend from neighboring provinces to Isfahan? Finally, what are the appropriate implementation strategies that can be proposed for the local conditions of Isfahan province?"
 
 
 

Methodology

This research employed a qualitative approach, specifically grounded theory, utilizing a systematic framework. Research data were collected through direct field observation and semi-structured individual interviews. Initially, field observations were conducted to gain a comprehensive understanding of the research area. Following preliminary analyses, semi-structured individual interviews were conducted with experts, professors, specialists, and activists in relevant fields. It is worth noting that field observations continued concurrently with the interviews throughout the study. The duration of the interviews and observations was seven months (June 2023 to December 2023). Purposeful sampling was used in this study, and ultimately, 24 individuals were interviewed until theoretical saturation was achieved. For data analysis, the three-stage coding method of grounded theory was applied. In open coding, the transcribed text of the interviews was coded line by line. In axial coding, core categories were derived based on constant comparative analysis and integrated within a paradigmatic model. In selective coding, the core category was extracted, and its linkages to other core categories were examined.
 

Findings

Data coding was conducted systematically following Strauss and Corbin's approach, involving open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. These coding procedures were based on causal conditions, contextual conditions, intervening conditions, strategies, and consequences. The process of data analysis and findings are presented below.

Causal Conditions: Causal conditions were identified, encompassing 81 open codes, 15 subcategories, and ultimately converging into two main categories: destination attractions/narratives and networks, and push factors.
Contextual Conditions: 22 open codes were identified for contextual conditions, and the categories of "changing conditions at the origin" and "expectation of a low cost of living at the destination" were considered contextual conditions.
Intervening Conditions: These categories were classified into three main categories: "macro-level orientations exacerbating migration "anonymity and "a more suitable environment for the attraction and interaction of workers and employers. These categories accounted for 19 open codes.
Strategies: Based on the analysis of the present research data, "policymaking and planning" "identifying the capacity for redistribution of residence" and "prioritizing migration research and education" are the migration management strategies in Isfahan province. Each of these strategies has 40 open codes.
Consequences: The consequences of migration include "socio-cultural consequences "economic consequences and "environmental consequences. Each of these consequences.

 

Discussion and Conclusion

Migration is one of the three primary drivers of demographic change, and in recent years, with a relative decrease in birth and death rates, it has played an increasingly significant role in the redistribution of population within regions. This redistribution and population displacement often have consequences that can challenge the security of both the host community and migrants. Accordingly, this research aims to investigate the factors and causes of migration and its consequences in Isfahan province, one of the major destination provinces for migrants. The findings indicate that migration to Isfahan province continues due to destination attractions, push factors from surrounding areas, and narratives and networks. This trend is exacerbated by other factors, ultimately leading to an increase in migration and a mismatch with the capacity and infrastructure of Isfahan province, resulting in numerous crises and challenges due to this population increase. Crises such as urban poverty, crime, prostitution, smuggling, insecurity, ethnic conflicts, social exclusion, and enhance can be categorized into three broad dimensions: economic, socio-cultural, and environmental. Each of these issues and challenges can threaten the security of both the host community in Isfahan province and the migrants. Therefore, we need a comprehensive overhaul of internal population redistribution based on environmental capacities at the national level. This redistribution can be achieved through various policies such as providing necessary incentives and penalties to achieve population sustainability and environmental sustainability at both the national and regional levels.