Document Type : Original Article
Authors
1
Somayeh Azizi - PhD Student of Geography and Rural Planning, Human Geography Group, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.
2
Associate Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Human Geography Group, Faculty of Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
Every spatial system, including rural settlements, is continuously changing and transforming from inside and outside under the influence of multiple forces (environmental, socio-economic, historical and political). Meanwhile, rural settlements located around urban centers (with an emphasis on metropolises) are exposed to more changes. In traditional planning, the forces of the future are mainly considered the forces of the past, and future changes and events are not taken into account. However, the driving forces that create the future are sometimes accompanied by uncertainty and can affect the future of the subject under consideration. In this regard, the current research, with the future research approach as one of the new planning approaches, has set its most important goal to identify the drivers effective on the transformation of rural settlements in metropolitan areas. The upcoming study is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in nature. The research methodology is of a mixed type (qualitative-quantitative) in order to achieve the goal and answer its question. In the qualitative part, semi-structured and interview were used (in order to identify driving factors and forces and uncertainties) and in the quantitative part, Delphi questionnaires were used (in order to prioritize and score drivers). By using the method of mutual effects analysis by MicMac software, the key factors affecting the transformation of rural settlements in Shahriar County have been identified and analyzed. Based on the obtained results, the most important key drivers affecting the transformation of rural settlements in Shahriar County, in order of importance: low institutional capacity, power rent in the policy and planning system, development of industrial economy, growth of land speculation, demographic backwardness of Tehran metropolis and spatial proximity to the metropolis Is
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