Drivinge Force Affecting the Transformation of Rural Settlements in Metropolitan Regions (Study case: Shahriar County)

Introduction
The unique characteristics of human group life and the distinctive features of their surrounding environment form a dynamic system based on continual interaction. The components of this spatial system are influenced by both internal and external forces through complex, ongoing processes that vary in nature and intensity. Rural settlements located near urban centers—particularly large metropolitan areas—are subject to more significant changes and developments across multiple dimensions including environmental-ecological, socio-cultural, demographic, economic, physical, and institutional-managerial domains, compared to rural areas further removed from such influences. In the case of Shahryar County, rural settlements benefit from proximity to Tehran, one of Iran’s largest metropolises, resulting in distinct advantages, constraints, opportunities, and challenges not commonly observed in other rural regions of the country. Given the complexity of cultural, scientific, economic, social, and environmental trends—some predictable, others uncertain, some rapid, and others gradual—it becomes crucial that rural development planning moves beyond reactive or static approaches. Instead, it must adopt a forward-looking perspective that embraces future-oriented strategies. From this vantage point, futures studies offer a novel approach to long-term planning, emerging over recent decades to address unpredictable, multifaceted, interwoven, and ambiguous challenges. Such methodologies can serve as effective tools for navigating the current dilemmas and bottlenecks affecting rural communities. Accordingly, this study was conducted with the following central research question: What are the key driving forces influencing the transformation of rural settlements in metropolitan areas—with emphasis on Shahryar County—and how do these factors interact?
 
Methodology
This research is classified as applied in purpose and employs a mixed-methods (qualitative-quantitative) design, grounded in the analytical-exploratory framework of futures studies (futurology). The qualitative phase involved identifying influential factors, uncertainties, and variables through observations and semi-structured interviews. A snowball sampling method was used to select expert participants, including local officials, academics, rural residents, and regional specialists. After reaching theoretical saturation at 25 interviews, the process continued up to 30 interviews to ensure comprehensive data collection. In the quantitative phase, a Delphi questionnaire was employed to prioritize and score the identified driving forces affecting rural transformations in Shahryar County. Cross-impact analysis was then performed using MICMAC software to assess the interdependencies among these factors.
 
Findings
Through expert interviews and content analysis, 18 key variables influencing the transformation of rural settlements in Shahryar County were initially identified. Following categorization into four groups—bipolar, influencer, autonomous, and dependent—six primary drivers were determined as most critical after matrix analysis and direct-indirect evaluation methods. These included: institutional capacities; rent-seeking behavior within policy and planning systems; industrial economic growth; land speculation; population dynamics in Tehran; and spatial proximity to the capital. These six factors demonstrated the highest influence scores in both direct and indirect scenarios, underscoring their strategic importance in shaping rural settlement dynamics. The MICMAC output maps revealed a generally unstable system, with most variables distributed around the diagonal axis of the impact-dependence plane. While only a few variables exhibited high influence, the majority displayed similar levels of impact, differing mainly in degree rather than type.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
One distinguishing feature of this study lies in its focus on under-researched rural areas adjacent to major metropolitan centers, particularly in the context of Tehran's influence on Shahryar County. Unlike previous works, this research highlights the role of "industrial economic development" as a key driver of rural transformation, offering new insights into its implications for rural settlements. Furthermore, the identification of variables and driving forces was grounded in expert interviews, reflecting the collective perspectives of diverse stakeholders. This participatory approach enhances the validity and applicability of findings, making them especially relevant for policymakers and planners aiming to develop adaptive, future-oriented strategies for rural development.