Document Type : Original Article
Authors
Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran
Abstract
1. Introduction
The sharp decline in Lake Urmia’s water level over the past two decades has produced profound economic, social, and environmental consequences for surrounding rural communities. Beyond damaging agricultural livelihoods, the crisis has weakened social capital, eroded local identity, and increased community vulnerability. In this context, rural regeneration has emerged as a strategic necessity aimed at rebuilding the economic, social, and ecological capacities of villages toward sustainable development. Sustainable entrepreneurship represents an innovative approach within this framework. By integrating economic viability, social inclusion, and environmental responsibility, it facilitates multidimensional value creation and enhances local resilience. The villages of Khestiban and Hesar Hajilar, located on the western shore of Lake Urmia, were selected as case studies due to their direct exposure to the water crisis and their complementary economic and social capacities, including agriculture, handicrafts, eco-tourism, renewable energy potential, and active local participation structures. Their geographical proximity and shared environmental conditions allow for meaningful comparison and contextual generalization. Accordingly, the main research question is: How can future-oriented scenarios for rural regeneration in Khestiban and Hesar Hajilar be designed and evaluated through sustainable entrepreneurship in a way that simultaneously strengthens economic, social, and environmental dimensions and informs strategic policymaking for regional sustainable development?
2. Methodology
This applied study adopts a futures-oriented approach and employs a mixed qualitative–quantitative design. In the qualitative phase, a theoretical framework was developed through a comprehensive literature review. Subsequently, four structured brainstorming sessions were conducted with 25 purposively selected participants (15 local stakeholders and 10 academic and executive experts) to identify, refine, and validate key indicators. In the quantitative phase, the finalized indicators were analyzed using the cross-impact matrix method (MICMAC) to determine their levels of influence and dependence. Key driving forces were then identified based on their structural position. Scenario Wizard software was subsequently employed to generate internally consistent future scenarios. Content validity was ensured through expert consensus, and reliability was assessed via sensitivity analysis within MICMAC.
3. Findings
The findings indicate that effective rural regeneration on the western shore of Lake Urmia depends on the simultaneous strengthening of sustainable entrepreneurship across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Economically, drought-resistant crops, small rural industries, renewable energy development, and eco-tourism were identified as key drivers of income diversification and livelihood resilience. Socially, social capital, women’s empowerment, youth entrepreneurial training, and inter-village networking enhance participation, cohesion, and social innovation. Environmentally, sustainable water management, soil conservation, green belt development, and adoption of new technologies are critical for reducing ecological pressure.
Cultural–identity factors—including local heritage, handicrafts, crisis narratives, and cultural branding linked to Lake Urmia—also emerged as reinforcing elements of social cohesion and collective resilience.
Scenario analysis revealed two contrasting futures:
Desirable scenario: characterized by integrated resource management, active community participation, green innovation, and strengthened social capital.
Crisis scenario: marked by inefficient governance, declining participation, environmental degradation, and heightened economic vulnerability.
These results suggest that the future trajectory of the region is highly contingent upon the strategic management of key drivers and the institutionalization of sustainable, locally grounded entrepreneurial practices.
4. Discussion and Conclusion
The study demonstrates that integrating a futures approach with participatory processes provides a robust framework for rural regeneration planning. Cross-impact analysis identified drought-resistant agriculture, sustainable water management, renewable energy, rural industries, eco-tourism, social capital, and women’s empowerment as critical structural drivers shaping future development pathways. The two identified scenarios highlight that regional outcomes depend on governance quality, community engagement, and innovation capacity. Addressing the research question, the findings confirm that scenario design and evaluation become operationally meaningful when sustainable entrepreneurship functions as the central strategic axis. By simultaneously reinforcing economic prosperity, social cohesion, and environmental stewardship, this approach provides a practical foundation for evidence-based policymaking and long-term regional sustainability in the Lake Urmia context.
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