نقش کارآفرینی پایدار بر بازآفرینی روستایی در کرانه غربی دریاچه ارومیه با رویکرد آینده پژوهی (مطالعه موردی: روستاهای کشتیبان و حصارحاجی‌لار)

Introduction

The sharp decline in Lake Urmia’s water level over the past two decades has had far-reaching consequences for agricultural livelihoods, local identity, and social cohesion in surrounding villages. This environmental crisis has not only strained the region’s natural and economic resources, but has also weakened social capital and increased the vulnerability of local communities. In such circumstances, rural regeneration is emerging as a strategic imperative; a process that aims to rebuild the economic, social, and environmental capacities of villages to achieve sustainable development. One of the new approaches in this field is sustainable entrepreneurship, which, by combining economic, social, and environmental goals, can pave the way for the creation of multidimensional values and enhance the resilience of local communities. The two villages of Khestiban and Hesar Hajilar were selected as case studies due to their common and complementary characteristics. These villages are located on the western shore of Lake Urmia and are directly affected by the water level decline crisis. Economically, they have diverse capacities such as agriculture, handicrafts, eco-tourism, and the ability to develop renewable energies. Socially, active councils, women's and youth participation, and significant social capital have provided real conditions for analyzing resilience and social regeneration. Geographical proximity and being in a common area also increase the possibility of comparing and generalizing the findings. Therefore, these two villages are suitable examples for examining the role of sustainable entrepreneurship in the process of rural regeneration in the context of the environmental crisis of Lake Urmia. Accordingly, the research question is; How can we design and evaluate possible scenarios for the regeneration of the villages of Khestiban and Hesarhajilar, using sustainable entrepreneurship and a futures research approach, in a way that these scenarios not only strengthen the three economic, social, and environmental dimensions, but also lead to practical policymaking and strategic decision-making for the sustainable development of the region?

Methodology

This applied research was conducted using a futures approach, and a mixed method (qualitative–quantitative) was employed to collect and analyze data. In the qualitative part, a theoretical framework was developed through a review of scientific sources. Subsequently, group meetings and brainstorming sessions were held with the participation of experts and local stakeholders, including village heads, council members, entrepreneurs, and development specialists, to identify and refine key indicators. The research population consisted of local stakeholders in two villages, and purposive sampling was applied; in total, 25 participants (15 local stakeholders and 10 academic and executive experts) took part in the research process. In the quantitative part, the refined indicators were entered into the cross-impact matrix (MICMAC) to determine the degree of influence and dependence of each factor. The output of this analysis was a map showing the position of factors in four main categories, from which key drivers were identified. Finally, using Scenario Wizard software, different combinations of these drivers were examined and consistent future scenarios were developed. To enhance the validity of the results, content validity was ensured through expert consensus, and reliability was tested using a sensitivity analysis in MICMAC.

Findings

The research findings showed that rural regeneration on the western shore of Lake Urmia will only be effective when sustainable entrepreneurship is strengthened simultaneously at the economic, social, and environmental levels. In the economic sector, indicators such as drought-resistant crops, the development of small rural industries, the use of renewable energy, and eco-tourism play an important role in creating sustainable income. These factors provide new paths for economic diversification and for increasing the livelihood resilience of villages.

In the social sector, social capital, women’s empowerment, training youth in entrepreneurial skills, and networking between villages are key factors that enhance local participation, social cohesion, and social innovation. In the environmental sector, sustainable management of water resources, soil protection, the creation of green belts, and the use of new technologies are of particular importance in reducing pressure on natural resources. In addition to these three areas, cultural-identity indicators such as cultural heritage, local handicrafts, crisis narratives, and cultural branding based on lake symbols play an important role in strengthening social identity and cohesion.

The research process progressed through four brainstorming sessions with the participation of local and specialized experts. In the first session, theoretical foundations and local capacities were reviewed, and a set of initial indicators was extracted. In the second session, these indicators were critiqued and refined; overlapping or incompatible items were removed, and more key indicators such as the role of women and sustainable water resource management were strengthened. In the third session, the indicators were categorized into four main areas and adapted to the local conditions of the region. In the fourth session, a final list of 23 key indicators was established, which became the basis for cross-impact analysis (MICMAC) and future scenario development.

The scenario analysis outlined two main perspectives:

• Desirable scenario: A sustainable and innovative future with efficient resource management, active participation of local communities, green innovations, and strengthened social capital.

• Crisis scenario: Continuation of inefficient patterns, reduced social participation, intensified environmental crises, and increased economic vulnerability.

These findings indicate that the future path of the villages on the western shore of Lake Urmia depends on the quality of resource management, the level of social participation, and the use of innovative capacities. Only by relying on sustainable, indigenous, and forward-looking indicators can successful rural regeneration and sustainable development of the region be guaranteed.

Discussion and Conclusion

The results of the study showed that combining a futures approach with the active participation of local stakeholders can provide a valid framework for designing rural regeneration scenarios. Cross-impact analysis revealed that a set of key drivers—such as drought-resistant crops, sustainable water resource management, renewable energy, small rural industries, and eco-tourism—play a crucial role in shaping the future. Alongside these factors, social capital and women’s empowerment were also identified as elements that strengthen local capacities.

The scenario analysis outlined two main perspectives: a desirable scenario that envisions a sustainable, balanced, and innovative future, and a crisis scenario that depicts the continuation of inefficient patterns and the intensification of social and environmental crises. These scenarios indicate that the future path of the villages on the western shore of Lake Urmia is highly dependent on how the key drivers are managed.

In response to the main research question, it can be concluded that designing and evaluating valid scenarios is possible when sustainable entrepreneurship is considered the central axis. This approach enables the economic (prosperity of small industries and resilient crops), social (social capital and women’s empowerment), and environmental (water resource and renewable energy management) dimensions to be simultaneously strengthened, thereby providing the foundation for practical policymaking and strategic decision-making aimed at the sustainable development of the region.