Analysis of Flood Susceptibility in Rural Settlements within the Hawraman Cultural Landscape

1. Introduction
Given the numerous and complex issues and challenges arising from flooding, assessing and managing this risk in order to reduce the effects of flooding on the lives and livelihoods of human society and the environment seems to be necessary and logical. In order to have a reliable and useful tool for informed decision-making on flood risk management, it is essential to prepare flood risk maps and identify flood-prone areas. The first step in flood prevention and management is to determine flood-prone areas and, in a way, identify flood-prone areas, which can be achieved using various methods such as Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing. The Cultural Landscape of Hawraman is located in western Iran, in the provinces of Kurdistan and Kermanshah, and was registered as a World Heritage Site by UNESCO in 2021 due to its unique attractions. Based on the control points of the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman buffer zone, which was drawn up by UNESCO, 319 rural settlements have been established in this area; the mentioned villages have a total of 31,485 households and 111,483 people. On the one hand, considering the world registration of the Hawraman region and its international value, and on the other hand, considering the mountainous nature of the region and the possibility of flood risk in this area, identifying rural settlements at risk of flooding can play a significant role in managing this risk. Therefore, considering the application of geographic information systems in zoning geographical areas in terms of the occurrence of various hazards, the main questions of the present study are: What are the most important factors affecting the occurrence of floods in the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman? What is the flood risk zoning in the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman? What number/percentage of villages and the population living in the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman are at high and very high risk of flooding? And what pattern does the spatial distribution of the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman follow in terms of flood risk?
 

Methodology

In general, in order to achieve the main goal of the research, the following steps have been carried out in a systematic process:
Step 1: Due to the lack of access to the study area file and the lack of cooperation of relevant organizations and departments in providing the desired layers to researchers, in the first stage of the research, the layer of the study area (Cultural Landscape of Hawraman, one of the UNESCO World Heritage Sites) was extracted and prepared. This was done using the map available on the UNESCO website and the UTM control points on the aforementioned website, during which the desired area was digitized in the Arc Map software, and finally the study area was extracted with the UTM coordinate system.
Step 2 & 3: In this stage of the research, relevant criteria (21 criteria) were identified by studying domestic and foreign research related to the subject of study (flood risk zoning in human settlements).
Step 4: In this stage, after extracting the 21 layers, the necessary processing (reclassification) was performed on the layers used in the Arc Map software.
Step 5: In the fifth stage, existing flood points were extracted using Sentinel radar data and within the GEE system. It should be noted that 377 flood points were identified during this process.
Step 6: In this stage, the weight of the classes of all layers was calculated. In this way, the classes of all layers were valued using the fuzzy method. It should be noted that the importance of the classes was calculated based on the opinions of the relevant experts.
Step 7: In this stage, the final weight of the 21 layers was calculated by the relevant experts and then the weight of the layers was applied in the Arc Map software.
Step 8: In order to prepare the final map of the zoning of the global cultural landscape of Huaran in terms of flood risk, the fuzzy overlap approach and the OR method were used. It should be noted that the aforementioned zoning was carried out in five risk zones (very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk). Then, the villages located in each zone were identified, and finally, 319 rural points located in the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman were grouped into the five mentioned risk zones, and the findings were analyzed.
Step 9: To examine the spatial distribution of the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman in terms of flood risk, the Moran index was used.
 

Findings

The results of the survey of the location of 319 rural settlements located in the study area showed that none of the villages were located in the very low risk zone, and 0.94 percent of the villages (equivalent to 3 villages) were located in the low risk zone, 21.63 percent (equivalent to 69 villages) in the medium risk zone, 43.57 percent (equivalent to 139 villages) in the high risk zone, and 22.55 percent (equivalent to 108 villages) in the very high risk zone. The findings regarding the population residing in different zones in the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman in terms of flood risk show that out of the 111,483 people residing in this region: 0.7 percent (equivalent to 776 people) are in the low-risk zone, 17.93 percent (equivalent to 19,990 people) are in the medium-risk zone, 48.76 percent (equivalent to 54,356 people) are in the high-risk zone, and 32.62 percent (equivalent to 36,361 people) are in the very high-risk zone.
 

Discussion and Conclusion

The mountainous nature of the region, high rainfall, steep slopes, lack of attention to the location of the original settlement of villages, gradual physical and structural development of villages towards flood-prone areas, unauthorized construction, and gradual reduction of forest and pasture cover are the main reasons for the poor condition of the studied region compared to other areas.
Considering the various damages caused by floods, which can be summarized in economic, social, and environmental dimensions, reducing the damages caused by them, especially in rural settlements that have a long-standing connection with their surroundings, is an essential requirement. Reducing the damages caused by floods can be achieved by relying on management-executive solutions and operational studies, which are discussed below.

A) Management and executive strategies to reduce flood risks


Providing flood risk maps to government and private sector organizations and departments, as well as the local community
Sustainability of materials used in various constructions in rural environments (housing, roads, public facilities, etc.)
Gradual transfer of housing and facilities located in high and very high-risk areas in terms of flooding to low-risk areas
Preventing all types of construction in areas at high and very high risk
More stringent enforcement of rural construction laws and regulations by government departments and organizations, especially the Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation


B) Study strategies to reduce flood risks


Using new methods and tools for zoning the Cultural Landscape of Hawraman in terms of flood risk
Investigating the resilience of the local community at risk of flooding and identifying the factors affecting it.
Finding optimal space for relocating villages at risk of flooding.