تاب‌آوری معیشت کشاورزی در برابر خشکسالی‌های مکرر؛ تحلیلی از روستاهای شهرستان درمیان

Introduction
Frequent droughts are a major challenge for smallholder farmers, affecting the resilience of these households. Drought has always had a great and sometimes catastrophic impact on the activities of people and human life around the world. This phenomenon is not always considered to be a difficult disaster; it has a great impact on human life. Drought encompasses a complex and intertwined set of negative impacts on the quality of life of rural communities. While impacting various aspects of the economic and social activities of farmers and related industries, it also impacts other people in the village whose job is not agriculture, and it also influences their lives. Increasing inflation in society, reducing employment opportunities, reducing the ability to pay back agricultural loans, increasing the price of raw materials for people, drying up the water resources, competing for water, the costs of migration, and social and family breakdown are other notable consequences of drought, so in developing countries, it has a great impact on the different aspects of the livelihoods of rural households because, in these countries, agriculture is the economic activity of many rural areas, and most rural households directly benefit from the agricultural sector; if there are no risk reduction systems, their lives will be greatly reduced.
Frequent and irregular droughts in South Khorasan province and especially Darmian city, which has been in existence since 1998, have had a serious impact on agricultural production and livelihoods of farmers. The development of resilience and agricultural livelihoods against droughts and water resource depletion is necessary due to the increasing number of droughts and the depletion of water resources. Droughts, in addition to reducing agricultural production, have led to a decline in farmers' incomes, the destruction of some of the city's economic foundations, and an increase in unemployment in the region.
Livelihood resilience (with a focus on agriculture) refers to the ability of agricultural systems to cope with environmental changes and the impacts of the most severe climatic conditions, which is a crucial strategy for confronting and transitioning from the aforementioned circumstances. The present study was conducted to better understand the livelihood resilience of farmer households against shocks caused by drought in Darmian County. Therefore, the aim of this study is to evaluate the determinant indicators of the level of livelihood resilience of small-scale farmers in the face of recurrent droughts. The obtained information helps in identifying the target, applying appropriate adaptation strategies, adopting mitigation measures, facilitating relief interventions, and building future resilience.

Methodology
This applied, and descriptive research was conducted in three stages. The first step was to determine the indicators and variables of agricultural resilience, which was done through documentary review and studying previous research. In the second step, using the indicators and variables obtained from the previous stage, a researcher-made questionnaire was first prepared and developed. After examining its validity and reliability, it was completed by rural elites through a survey method. Finally, the data was analyzed using statistical methods (t-test and binomial test) and the SPSS software. In the third step, the rural settlements under study were ranked in terms of the livelihood resilience status of farmers facing drought using the ORESTE method.
The validity of the research instrument was examined through consultation with experts and specialists in rural planning, rural development, and agricultural extension and education. Its reliability was also evaluated using the Cronbach's alpha method, and since the alpha score for the different sections of the questionnaire was more than 70% and the overall average of the questionnaire was 89%, the result confirmed the reliability of the research instrument.
Agricultural resilience was considered as the target population of the study for small-scale farmers in Darmian County. Due to the lack of accessible statistics on small-scale farmers in rural settlements in the country's documents and databases, the researcher proceeded to complete the questionnaire by referring to local elites and informants, including members of the Islamic Council and village headmen present in the villages.
The statistical population at the settlement level consisted of villages with more than 20 households in Darmian County, which, according to the 2016 census, numbered 96 villages. With the guidance of experts from the County Agricultural Jihad Department, 15 prominent agricultural villages with the highest number of small-scale farmers (including the villages of Zargaz, Fazlabad, Gask, Mansurabad, Shirak, Menandebala, Kushkak, Khavan, Takhtejan, Nasraldein, Avaz, Darmian, Forog, Hendevalan, and Burrang) were selected as the sample, and 100 available respondents and key informants in these villages completed the designed questionnaire, the results of which are presented in the findings section.

Findings
The highest mean was for the absorptive capacity (52.42), and the lowest was for the transformative capacity (17.82). Determinants of Absorptive Capacity: All factors except “delayed onset or early cessation of rainfall,” “weeds,” and “soil erosion” were significant in the study villages. Friedman's test ranked “occurrence of strong winds” as the top factor and “land rent” as the least important factor in determining the absorptive capacity of farmers' livelihood resilience.
Determinants of Adaptive Capacity: All components except the household head's gender, number of cultivated crops, number of livelihood activities, number of months without food shortage, farm size, remittance as an income source, and savings accounts were significant in the study villages. Friedman's test showed that “access to credit” was the top-ranked factor, while “farming experience” and “off-farm income” were the least important factors in determining the adaptive capacity of farmers' livelihood resilience.
Determinants of Transformative Capacity: All factors except “access to clinics” and “pesticide use” had a significant effect on the livelihood resilience of farmers in Darmian County. Friedman's test ranked “receiving training and support” as the top factor and “recommendation and follow-up” as the least important factor in determining the transformative capacity of agricultural livelihood resilience.

Discussion and Conclusion
The findings revealed that all the absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities were significant determinants of the agricultural livelihood resilience in the villages of Darmian County. This suggests that livelihood resilience is associated with absorptive, adaptive, and transformative capacities. The ranking of the studied settlements further revealed that: The village of Burrang had the highest level of livelihood resilience compared to the other villages in the study. The profound gap in the livelihood resilience of farmers among the villages underscores the need for concerted efforts to improve this indicator based on forward-looking planning.