1- Introduction

Climate change has emerged as one of the most critical challenges of the present century, exerting profound impacts on rural livelihoods and the sustainability of rural settlements. In rural areas with a high dependence on agricultural activities, the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related hazards such as droughts, temperature fluctuations, and water scarcity have significantly intensified livelihood vulnerability among farmers. In this context, livelihood adaptation is widely recognized as a key strategy for reducing the adverse impacts of climate change and enhancing the resilience of rural communities. Despite the growing importance of adaptation, empirical evidence suggests that farmers’ adaptive behaviors and intentions are not determined solely by the objective severity of climate hazards, but are strongly influenced by subjective perceptions, beliefs, and psychological factors. Accordingly, the application of behavioral frameworks provides a more nuanced understanding of farmers’ decision-making processes in response to climate change. In this study, an integrated framework combining Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is employed to examine the determinants of farmers’ livelihood adaptation intentions. The main objective of the research is to analyze the role of psychological factors-including self-efficacy, risk perception, attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control—in shaping farmers’ livelihood adaptation intentions, with particular attention to the (non-moderating) role of belief in climate change.

2- Methodology

This study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–analytical in terms of method, adopting a quantitative research approach. The statistical population consists of farmers residing in 30 rural settlements of Lorestan Province. Using Cochran’s formula, a sample size of 386 farmers was determined. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed through expert judgment and content validity assessment. The reliability of the measurement instrument was verified using Cronbach’s alpha and composite reliability indices. Data analysis was conducted using Structural Equation Modeling based on the Partial Least Squares approach (PLS-SEM). In this process, both the measurement model and the structural model were evaluated. To examine the hypothesized relationships among psychological constructs and farmers’ livelihood adaptation intentions, path coefficients and significance levels were assessed. The analysis was performed using SmartPLS software, which enabled a robust examination of the explanatory power and overall fit of the proposed research model.

3. Findings

The findings of the study indicate that among the examined variables, self-efficacy has the strongest and most significant positive effect on farmers’ livelihood adaptation intentions in response to climate change. This result suggests that farmers who perceive themselves as more capable of managing climate-related impacts are more likely to adopt adaptive livelihood strategies. Risk perception of climate change also shows a positive and statistically significant effect on livelihood adaptation intentions, although its magnitude is weaker compared to that of self-efficacy. This finding implies that farmers’ awareness and perception of climate-related risks contribute to their willingness to adapt; however, perceived risk alone is not sufficient to strongly motivate adaptive behavior. In contrast, attitude, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control do not exhibit significant effects on farmers’ livelihood adaptation intentions. Furthermore, the results reveal that belief in climate change does not play a significant moderating role in the relationships between the psychological variables and livelihood adaptation intentions. In other words, believing in the occurrence of climate change does not alter the strength of the effects of the main explanatory variables on farmers’ adaptive intentions. Overall, the proposed model demonstrates an acceptable level of explanatory power and an adequate model fit in explaining farmers’ livelihood adaptation intentions

4. Discussion and Conclusion

The findings of this study indicate that farmers’ intentions to adopt livelihood adaptation strategies in response to climate change are primarily influenced by self-efficacy and risk perception. The prominent role of self-efficacy suggests that farmers who perceive themselves as capable and skilled in addressing the impacts of climate change are more likely to engage in adaptive strategies. This result aligns with the assumptions of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and underscores the importance of enhancing individual capacities to promote adaptive behaviors. Moreover, the significant effect of risk perception indicates that farmers’ awareness and understanding of the severity and consequences of climate change can also play an important role in shaping adaptation intentions, although the magnitude of this effect is smaller compared to self-efficacy. This implies that perceived threat alone is not a strong driver of behavior change, but can lead to adaptive action when accompanied by a sense of personal capability. The non-significant moderating role of belief in climate change suggests that merely believing in the occurrence of climate change is not sufficient to strengthen the relationships between psychological factors and adaptation intentions. This finding points to a gap between awareness and action in rural communities, highlighting that policies focused solely on raising awareness, without practically empowering farmers, are likely to have limited effectiveness. Accordingly, it is recommended that rural development programs and climate adaptation policies not only raise awareness of climate risks but also focus on enhancing skills, providing practical training, and strengthening farmers’ self-efficacy. Overall, the results of this study suggest that integrating behavioral frameworks can lead to a more comprehensive understanding of farmers’ livelihood adaptation and provide a foundation for developing more effective strategies to ensure the sustainability of rural livelihoods under changing climatic conditions