تحلیل ساختاری چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های توسعه گردشگری در روستای کندوان با رویکرد آینده نگاری

1. Introduction
The historical village of Kandovan, with its unique rock-hewn architecture and pristine natural landscapes, is regarded as one of Iran’s most valuable cultural and tourism heritages. Featuring cone-shaped carved houses, this village is a living example of the peaceful coexistence of humans and nature over centuries. Today, due to its distinctive attractions, it holds a special place in the country’s tourism industry and welcomes a large number of domestic and international visitors. The growing popularity of this tourist destination, while bringing valuable economic and social opportunities to the region, has also created serious challenges. Changes in the traditional fabric, the transformation of authentic architectural identity, pressure on local resources and infrastructure, and threats to the region’s ecosystem sustainability are among the issues that cast significant uncertainty over Kandovan’s future. Under such circumstances, a purely quantitative approach to tourism development cannot address the existing complexities, and the need to rethink management models with a forward-looking approach is increasingly felt. The futures studies approach, using structural analysis methods, provides an effective tool for identifying driving forces, key uncertainties, and the interplay between challenges and opportunities. This approach enables the mapping of alternative scenarios and the formulation of strategic pathways to achieve a desirable future. Hence, the main research question is posed as follows:
What are the challenges and opportunities of future tourism in Kandovan Village?
 

Methodology

The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature, with a futures studies approach. Using structural analysis, this study identifies and prioritizes the key variables affecting the challenges and opportunities of tourism in Kandovan Village. The participant population includes 30 specialists, tourism experts, rural development planners, university professors, local entrepreneurs, and experts familiar with the Kandovan region, selected through purposive and snowball sampling. The data collection tool is a structured, matrix-based questionnaire based on the cross-impact analysis method, whose validity was confirmed through face and content validity, and whose reliability was verified using the expert consensus method. For data analysis, the MicMac software is used, which is capable of analyzing complex relationships among variables, determining their influence and dependence levels, and mapping key variables on a scatter plot. In structural analysis, data are analyzed using a cross-impact matrix. This matrix is a two-dimensional table in which the research variables are placed in both the rows and the columns.

Findings

This study was conducted to identify the key variables affecting the challenges and opportunities of tourism in Kandovan Village using a futures studies approach. After experts confirmed the components, 28 influential variables were extracted. Then, using MicMac software and cross-impact matrix analysis, the pattern of influence and dependence among variables was mapped. In this study, the interactions between the components of tourism challenges and opportunities in Kandovan Village were examined through a futures studies approach, based on the results of Delphi sessions and with the participation of 30 managers. The adopted analytical process made it possible to identify the nature of relationships and the degree of influence of each component on others. In this regard, 28 cross-impact matrices were formed, each representing the degree of influence of one component on the others. Given that the software raises the matrix to successive powers to calculate indirect effects, the sum of indirect influences and dependencies reaches multi-digit numbers, making comparison with direct effects difficult. To solve this problem, the software provides a table showing the share of factors based on direct and indirect effects on a scale of ten thousand. Accordingly, the total sum of influences and dependencies is calculated as ten thousand, and each factor’s share of this number represents its contribution to the entire system. The component of protective laws, regulations, and criteria has the largest share in direct and indirect influence. Furthermore, all the key components identified in direct influence are repeated, with slight shifts, in indirect influence.
 

Discussion and Conclusion

The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying the challenges and opportunities of tourism in Kandovan Village by applying a futures studies approach and structural analysis method. In response to the main research question—"How can the key challenges and opportunities of tourism in Kandovan Village be identified using a futures studies approach and structural analysis?"—the results indicate that the tourism system of Kandovan is in an unstable state, and the variables are mostly scattered around the diagonal axis of the scatter plot, reflecting the complexity and multidimensionality of the issue. According to the research findings, among the 28 components examined, three components—"protective laws, regulations, and criteria," "institutional participation and coordination," and "development of eco-lodges"—were identified as the most influential key factors in both direct and indirect analyses. The component of protective laws and regulations, with the highest influence score (478 in direct effects and 469 in indirect effects), was determined as the most important driver of tourism development in Kandovan. Furthermore, the economic-institutional components, with a total influence of 448 and dependence of 444, play the most significant role in the system, indicating the importance of the institutional and governance dimension in managing tourism at this unique destination. In contrast, technology and digital marketing components, with a total influence of 132 and dependence of 156, have the lowest degree of influence in the system and are primarily classified as independent or secondary leverage factors. This finding suggests that the potential of new technologies and digital marketing, despite their high capacity for tourism development in Kandovan, has not yet been effectively utilized in the region’s tourism management system.