تحلیل و ارزیابی وضعیت توسعه پایدار روستاهای پیراشهری با روش تحلیل ساختار و گام آینده محور (مطالعه مورد: روستاهای پیرامون شهر بجنورد)

Introduction
The urban-rural linkage is a phenomenon resulting from the two-way interaction of urban centers and rural settlements in a regional context, arising from various flows such as people, goods, information, technology, innovation, and the like. Theoretically, research into these flows within the context of economic, social, and cultural transformations, particularly in developing countries, is associated with the diversification and strengthening of employment in rural areas. Therefore, the role of cities in relation to villages, and the formulation of development policies aimed at reducing poverty and supporting the positive role of urban centers in the development of surrounding rural areas, is endorsed by development experts. In general, the role of cities in rural development is realized through the linkages and relationships between rural and urban areas. New development paradigms place great importance on networks and connections between rural and urban regions. Despite playing a fundamental role in urban development and regional economic growth, rural development has received relatively little attention. Villages in Bojnord City, located in northeastern Iran, face numerous challenges and opportunities in the social, economic, environmental, and cultural spheres. These challenges include population decline due to rural-urban migration, climate change and water scarcity, and a lack of comprehensive development planning. Migration has occurred due to a lack of stable job opportunities, inadequate infrastructure services, and a shortage of educational and health facilities, ultimately leading to a decrease in the active workforce and a weakening of the villages' socioeconomic structures. This has also resulted in a disconnect between generations and the forgetting of regional traditions and cultural identity. However, these villages possess potential in areas such as agriculture, livestock farming, and tourism, which can be harnessed for sustainable development. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a comprehensive approach to empowering the villages of Bojnord City, based on the principles of sustainable development and with an emphasis on leveraging local capacities and effective resource management. Consequently, this research aims to achieve the following objectives: 1) Identify and analyze the most significant variables that have a direct and indirect impact on the sustainable development of villages surrounding Bojnord City. 2) Considering the role of Bojnord City, how will the future scenarios of the surrounding villages unfold in various development areas (economic, social, and environmental)?

Methodology
This research employs a descriptive-analytical approach with a practical objective. Utilizing a mixed-methods design, combining quantitative and qualitative methods, this study delves into the factors influencing sustainable development in the targeted region. In the initial phase, through a comprehensive literature review and expert opinions, 57 variables impacting the sustainable development of villages surrounding Bojnord City were identified. A sample of 25 relevant experts and researchers in the field was selected (15 experts in urban issues and 10 experts in rural issues). Subsequently, the MICMAC software was employed to analyze the relationships between variables and identify key drivers. At this stage, experts evaluated the level of influence of variables on each other by completing a 57x57 matrix. Ultimately, after two data rotations, a value of 81.1911 was obtained, indicating high data reliability and a very strong influence of the data on each other. The results obtained from the MICMAC software, along with the Delphi method and the MICMAC software, were used to delineate future development scenarios for the region. The research process can be summarized as follows:
Data Collection: Information was gathered through a review of library resources, expert opinions, and existing development plans.
Variable Identification: Using the aforementioned methods, variables influencing the sustainable development of the region were identified, and a list was compiled.
Analysis of Relationships Between Variables Using MICMAC Software: Using an influence-dependence matrix, the relationships between variables were examined, and key drivers were identified.
Determining Future Scenarios: Based on the identified key drivers, the Delphi method and MICMAC software were used to outline various scenarios for the region's future.


Finding
An analysis of the factors influencing the development of rural areas surrounding Bojnord City reveals several key findings. Economic Factors: The border location, expansion of border markets, and job creation initiatives have significantly impacted the livelihoods of rural residents by generating new economic opportunities, thereby fostering rural development. Physical Infrastructure: Access to clean drinking water, adequate housing, proper transportation networks, and internet connectivity, as fundamental infrastructure elements, play a crucial role in enhancing the quality of life for rural inhabitants and facilitating access to services and opportunities.Public Services: The provision of quality education and healthcare services contributes to improving the knowledge and health levels of rural populations and ultimately leads to sustainable rural development. Governance and Policy: Provincial governance, through the formulation and implementation of appropriate rural policies, can play a pivotal role in ensuring equitable distribution of resources and opportunities, thereby driving rural development.Natural Factors: Droughts, as natural phenomena, can severely impact water resources, agriculture, and other economic activities in rural areas, hindering their sustainable development. Scenario analysis results indicated that, of all scenarios, 2 were classified as favorable, 5 as catastrophic, and 3 as intermediate. This distribution suggests that the status of variables influencing the sustainable development of rural areas surrounding Bojnord County, which are heavily influenced by the county's conditions and planning, is highly variable and unstable."
Discussion and Conclusion
The final conclusion underscores the critical dependence of sustainable development in rural areas surrounding Bojnurd on macro-level policies, water resource management, and job creation. Structural analysis and scenario simulation reveal that these rural areas face the most pessimistic scenarios (5) in terms of employment, agriculture, border location, drought, and potable water resources. Furthermore, the areas of macro-management, healthcare, and education are in an intermediate state that, based on current trends, is shifting towards a pessimistic outlook. Future scenarios indicate that if these challenges are not addressed, rural areas will experience widespread migration and environmental degradation. To achieve sustainable development, it is recommended that: firstly, supportive policies for sustainable agriculture, rural tourism, and small and medium-sized industries be strengthened to create employment; secondly, the border geographical location (prosperity of trade and commerce) of North Khorasan City, with its direct and indirect impact on the development of rural areas in Bojnurd, be given due importance; and thirdly, investment in rural infrastructure and improved access to public services be increased."