تحلیل وضعیت توسعه پایدار روستاهای پیراشهری با روش تحلیل ساختار و گام آینده محور (مطالعه مورد: روستاهای پیرامون شهر بجنورد)

Introduction

Urban–rural linkage is a dynamic phenomenon emerging from the two-way interaction between urban centers and rural settlements within a regional context. These interactions manifest through various flows—people, goods, information, technology, and innovation—and play a fundamental role in shaping spatial and socioeconomic transformations. In the theoretical context, studies of such flows, particularly in developing countries, highlight their vital role in diversifying and strengthening rural employment structures. Consequently, the interdependence between cities and villages, and the design of development policies that reduce poverty while enhancing the positive impact of urban centers on surrounding rural areas, have become central themes in the discourse of development planning. Generally, the contribution of cities to rural development is realized through systems of connectivity and interaction between urban and rural areas. New development paradigms, particularly those emphasizing network-based and spatially integrated growth, stress the importance of such linkages. Despite the crucial role rural areas play in urban and regional economic development, rural development itself has often received inadequate attention. The villages surrounding Bojnord City, located in northeastern Iran, exemplify this duality—possessing considerable potentials and capacities on one hand, yet facing persistent challenges on the other. Among the major challenges are population decline due to rural–urban migration, climate change and water scarcity, and the absence of a coherent and comprehensive rural development plan. Migration is largely driven by limited employment opportunities, weak infrastructure, inadequate educational and healthcare services, and a resulting decrease in the active labor force—all of which have deeply undermined the social and economic structures of rural communities. Consequently, the intergenerational continuity of knowledge and traditions has been disrupted, leading to the erosion of regional identity and cultural heritage. Despite these difficulties, these villages retain significant potential for growth through agriculture, livestock farming, and tourism, sectors that can serve as the foundation for sustainable rural development. Therefore, a comprehensive and strategic approach is required to empower these villages, grounded in the principles of sustainability, local capacity enhancement, and effective resource governance. Accordingly, the objectives of this research are twofold:

To identify and analyze the most influential variables that have direct and indirect impacts on the sustainable development of villages surrounding Bojnord City.
To explore, through scenario analysis, how different development pathways—economic, social, and environmental—might shape the future of these rural areas in relation to Bojnord City’s growth dynamics.

 

Methodology

This study employs a descriptive–analytical, mixed-methods approach with a practical orientation to examine the sustainable development of villages surrounding Bojnord City. Drawing on an extensive literature review and expert consultation, 57 key variables were initially identified. A purposive sample of 25 experts—15 in urban studies and 10 in rural development—participated in the analysis, completing a 57×57 structural influence matrix to assess inter-variable relationships. Using MICMAC (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification) software, the analysis revealed the causal hierarchy of variables and pinpointed core driving forces; after two iterations, the reliability coefficient reached 81.1911, indicating strong internal consistency. To project future trajectories, the Delphi method was integrated with MICMAC outputs in a structured scenario-building process that included: (1) data collection from documentary sources, expert interviews, and regional plans; (2) systematic identification and classification of influential variables; (3) MICMAC-based analysis of influence–dependence dynamics; and (4) development of multiple alternative scenarios reflecting plausible development pathways for the region.
 

Findings

The analysis of factors influencing the sustainable development of rural areas surrounding Bojnord City yielded several key insights. Economically, the province’s strategic border location, the expansion of cross-border markets, and targeted job creation initiatives have substantially improved rural livelihoods, fostering economic dynamism and diversification. In terms of physical infrastructure, access to safe drinking water, adequate housing, reliable transportation networks, and high-speed internet connectivity has proven essential—not only for enhancing residents’ quality of life but also for ensuring equitable access to public services and broader market opportunities. Public services, particularly the availability of quality education and healthcare, directly contribute to social well-being, human capital development, and the long-term resilience of these communities. Effective governance and sound policymaking at the provincial level—especially in the fair and strategic allocation of resources—emerge as critical enablers of balanced and inclusive rural development. However, natural factors present significant challenges: recurring droughts and associated water scarcity severely constrain agricultural productivity and threaten the ecological foundation of sustainability in the region. To explore future trajectories, a scenario analysis was conducted, which identified ten plausible development pathways. Of these, only two were classified as favorable, five as catastrophic, and three as intermediate. This distribution underscores a highly uncertain and precarious sustainability outlook for the peri-urban villages around Bojnord. The volatility of key drivers—especially water availability, employment stability, and agricultural viability—reveals a fragile equilibrium. Without timely and targeted interventions, the region risks tipping toward adverse outcomes, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive policies, integrated resource management, and proactive investment in resilience-building measures.
 

Discussion and Conclusion

The findings underscore that the sustainable development of villages surrounding Bojnord City hinges critically on macro-level governance, effective water resource management, and proactive employment creation policies. Structural analysis and scenario simulations reveal a largely pessimistic outlook, with five out of ten identified scenarios classified as catastrophic—particularly concerning employment, agriculture, border trade, drought resilience, and access to potable water. While domains such as macro-management, health, and education currently show intermediate performance, they too are trending toward decline without timely and effective interventions. If these challenges remain unaddressed, the region faces escalating rural depopulation, environmental degradation, and the erosion of local economic foundations. In response, the study proposes three key strategies: strengthening supportive policies for sustainable agriculture, rural tourism, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to generate local jobs and stabilize incomes; leveraging the province’s strategic border location to foster cross-border trade and stimulate rural economies; and significantly expanding investment in critical infrastructure and public services—especially water supply, transportation, and education—to reduce spatial inequalities and elevate living standards. By implementing these integrated measures, policymakers can shift the region away from fragile, high-risk pathways and toward resilient, self-reliant, and demographically stable rural communities in the Bojnord periphery.