تحلیل پیشران‌های اثرگذار بر تاب‌آوری زعفران‌کاران شهرستان قائنات

Introduction
Saffron, as one of the most important agricultural products with high economic value in Qaenat County, plays a key role in the livelihood and economic stability of rural households. However, the saffron production system in this region faces a range of instabilities and stresses that seriously threaten the resilience of saffron farmers. Among the most significant concerns for saffron farmers are severe price fluctuations, the absence of effective guaranteed pricing policies, rising production costs—especially labor expenses—structural weaknesses in local cooperative systems, insufficient government support, and challenges arising from climate change and recurrent droughts. Under such conditions, it appears essential to examine saffron farmers' resilience across various economic, social, institutional, and infrastructural dimensions. Without a precise understanding of the drivers influencing resilience, it won't be possible to design sustainable strategies and effective policy interventions. Therefore, the present study aims to identify and prioritize the factors affecting the resilience of saffron farmers in Qaenat County. Through this research, we hope to contribute to evidence-based policymaking and the sustainable development of this production system.
 
Methodology
This research is applied in terms of its objective and descriptive-analytical with a quantitative approach in terms of methodology. We identified the drivers influencing saffron farmers' resilience through an extensive review of past research and expert opinions. The output of the first step of this research was presented as a comprehensive decision tree of drivers influencing the resilience of saffron farmers in Qaenat County. The goal of this decision tree was to identify and rank the factors affecting the resilience of saffron farmers in Qaenat County. The first level of the decision tree includes four criteria: economic, technical, physical, and social, serving as the overall drivers impacting saffron farmers' resilience. At the second level, we compared seven economic sub-criteria, seven technical sub-criteria, eight physical sub-criteria, and six social sub-criteria as specific drivers, using pairwise comparisons. The research tool was a pairwise comparison questionnaire, completed through in-person interviews with 10 experts in agricultural resilience from Torbat Heydarieh University (in Iran), the Saffron Research Institute, and the Qaenat County Agricultural Jihad Organization. The pairwise comparison was designed across 4 criteria and 28 sub-criteria, totaling 85 pairwise comparisons. After collecting the pairwise comparison data from the sample members, we used the Grey Analytic Hierarchy Process (GAHP) to analyze the data and determine the relative weights of the criteria and sub-criteria within the decision tree.
 
Findings
The results of this study show that the economic factor holds the highest priority, with a relative weight of 0.6053, ranking first. Following this, the technical factor came in second with a weight of 0.1941, the physical factor third with 0.1555, and finally, the social factor ranked fourth with a weight of 0.0451. These findings indicate that, from the perspective of saffron farmers, economic considerations are the most critical component in enhancing their resilience.
In this research, sub-criteria such as access to banking facilities, the presence of a guaranteed market, diversification of income sources, and agricultural product insurance were among the main economic components emphasized by the respondents.
The technical factor, ranking second, was defined by indicators like the use of modern technologies, the level of mechanization, and resource management capability. The findings from weighting this criterion revealed that utilizing technical tools and knowledge can directly impact productivity and reduce the vulnerability of saffron farmers.
The physical factor, identified as the third priority, included components such as water resource quality, transportation infrastructure, climatic conditions, and soil quality. The lower importance of this factor compared to the first two might be due to the relatively more stable nature of these factors or farmers' limited control over them.
Finally, the social factor received the lowest relative weight (0.0415), placing it at the bottom of the list. Although indicators such as participation in cooperatives, family collaboration, trust in local institutions, and the role of women and youth in production were measured under this criterion, it appears that, under current conditions, saffron farmers in the Qaenat region do not consider these factors as effective in their resilience as economic and technical variables. This finding could indicate a gap in social capital and highlights the necessity of policymaking to strengthen social ties within the saffron farming sector.
 
Discussion of Findings
The investigations conducted in this study reveal that, from the perspective of saffron farmers in Qaenat County, economic issues play the most significant role in determining their level of resilience. This is entirely understandable, especially given that farmers currently face severe market fluctuations, increasing production costs, and insufficient support. Indeed, concerns such as the absence of guaranteed pricing, volatile purchase rates, and difficulties in accessing reliable markets have led farmers to experience the highest vulnerability in this domain. In conclusion, policymaking in the saffron farming sector must adopt a comprehensive and multi-dimensional approach. When prioritizing interventions, the greatest focus should be on improving economic conditions, facilitating access to stable markets, reducing production costs, and enhancing farmers' technical knowledge. Additionally, strengthening social capital and supporting local institutions can contribute to increasing the resilience of the production system and the sustainability of farmers' livelihoods in the long run.