دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 Tourism Development and Social Reconstruction in Rural Areas: An Analysis of Social Emergence in Host Communities توسعه گردشگری و باز ساخت اجتماعی در نواحی روستایی: تحلیلی بر پیداشوندگی اجتماعی در جوامع میزبان 1 24 3789 10.22077/vssd.2025.9875.1327 FA حمدالله سجاسی قیداری دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران 0000-0001-9456-7312 Journal Article 2025 08 04 1. Introduction Rural communities face challenges such as migration, unemployment, and the weakening of social ties, while rural tourism has emerged as a strategic approach to economic and social development. By utilizing the natural, cultural, and human capacities of villages, this form of tourism can generate employment, preserve cultural heritage, and improve the quality of life. In addition to economic growth, it can also foster social and cultural dynamics. In this context, the concept of social emergence—which refers to the process of forming new capacities, identities, and social capital—has gained particular significance. The development of rural tourism can provide opportunities for participation, interaction, and social reflection, thereby facilitating the emergence of new social dynamics. However, in the studied region of Ramian County, despite the high potential for attracting tourists, tourism activities have been predominantly economic, and broad-based social participation among villagers has not been realized. In some cases, tourism development has even led to conflicts of interest and social divisions. Therefore, although rural tourism can contribute to economic and social growth, the mechanisms of social emergence within the fabric of rural communities have received limited attention. This conceptual gap highlights the need for a study that examines how rural tourism influences social emergence, aiming to clarify how tourism development—beyond its material benefits—can lead to profound social transformations and sustainable local communities. Accordingly, this study seeks to investigate the impact of rural tourism development on social emergence and to answer the key question: How can rural tourism contribute to the social emergence of local communities? 2. Methodology The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–survey in terms of methodology, employing a quantitative approach to examine the effect of rural tourism development on the social emergence of local communities. Research data were collected through a researcher-made questionnaire based on indicators extracted from the theoretical literature and measured using a five-point Likert scale. In this study, components such as tourism infrastructure, the number of tourists, and tourism-generated income were considered as indicators of tourism development. The statistical population consisted of residents of villages engaged in tourism activities in Ramian County, including Paqaleh, Razi, Kashkak, Jowzchal, Melch-Aram, Viroo, Alhadi, and Qurchai.The sample size was determined to be 259 individuals using Cochran’s formula with a 5% margin of error and a 95% confidence level. Samples were selected through simple random sampling among household heads. Collected data were analyzed using SPSS software through descriptive and inferential statistical methods, including t-tests, Pearson correlation, ANOVA, path analysis, and regression analysis, in order to examine the relationships between the components of tourism development and the indicators of social emergence within the rural context. 3. Findings The findings of the study indicate that 59.1% of the respondents were male and 40.9% were female, with the majority belonging to the 30–40 age group. Approximately 64.5% of the participants reported earning income from tourism, mostly within the range of 2 to 5 million tomans, demonstrating the significant economic role of tourism in the livelihoods of rural residents. Statistical test results revealed that the data were normally distributed, and that tourism development had a significant effect on seven out of the eight variables of social emergence. The strongest effect was observed on cultural prominence, while the weakest was related to cultural sensitivity. Pearson correlation analysis showed a strong relationship between tourism development and the indicators of social emergence, particularly in the variables of extroversion and social cohesion. The ANOVA test also indicated significant differences among the studied villages. In the regression model, tourism infrastructure exerted the greatest influence on social emergence, followed by tourism income and the number of tourists. Moreover, local participation was identified as the most important mediating factor in this process. In conclusion, rural tourism development can lead to sustainable social emergence only when it is accompanied by genuine local participation, equitable distribution of benefits, and the strengthening of infrastructural capacities. 4. Discussion and Conclusion By examining the impact of rural tourism development on social emergence, this study provides a clear understanding of the relationships between various dimensions of tourism development and the socio-cultural transformations of local communities. In the case study of tourism villages in Ramian County, it was found that tourism development—when based on the principles of local participation and equitable benefit distribution—can serve as an effective driver in strengthening social emergence. The findings indicated that the demographic structure of the villages offers suitable potential for community participation in tourism; however, inequality in benefit distribution and limited participation of women remain key challenges. Statistical analyses showed that tourism development had a significant effect on seven out of eight indicators of social emergence, with the highest impact observed in social extroversion, social cohesion, and local self-efficacy, and the lowest in cultural sensitivity. In the regression model, tourism infrastructure had the strongest effect (β = 0.38), followed by tourism income (β = 0.25) and the number of tourists (β = 0.18). Local participation acted as a mediating variable, transferring 58% of the effects of tourism development. The significant differences among the studied villages (p < 0.001) revealed that the effects of tourism are highly dependent on local conditions. Comparison of the present findings with those of Dehghani et al. (2025) and Wu et al. (2023) suggests that tourism development leads to favorable social outcomes only when it is grounded in genuine and active community participation. Similarly, consistent with the findings of Beedie and Hudson (2003), tourism impacts vary across communities and are contingent upon the cultural and economic contexts of each region. In conclusion, rural tourism development can lead to sustainable social emergence only when it emphasizes genuine community participation, investment in infrastructure, equitable distribution of benefits, women’s empowerment, and the enhancement of cultural sensitivity. گردشگری روستایی به‌عنوان یکی از راهبردهای توسعه پایدار، نقش مهمی در بهبود شرایط اقتصادی و اجتماعی جوامع محلی ایفا می‌کند. این پژوهش با هدف بررسی تأثیر توسعه گردشگری روستایی بر پیداشوندگی اجتماعی در جوامع محلی انجام شده است. پیداشوندگی اجتماعی به فرایند شکل‌گیری ظرفیت‌های جدید اجتماعی، هویت جمعی و سرمایه‌های نوین در بستر تعاملات محلی اشاره دارد. روش تحقیق حاضر توصیفی-پیمایشی بوده و داده‌ها از طریق پرسشنامه محقق‌ساخته در بین 259 نفر از ساکنان 8 روستای گردشگری در شهرستان رامیان جمع‌آوری شد. یافته‌ها نشان داد که توسعه گردشگری روستایی بر هفت شاخص از هشت شاخص پیداشوندگی اجتماعی تأثیر معناداری داشته است. برون‌گرایی اجتماعی، انسجام اجتماعی و خودکارآمدی محلی بیشترین تأثیر را پذیرفته‌اند، در حالی که حساسیت فرهنگی کمترین تأثیر را نشان داده است. تحلیل رگرسیون نیز تأثیر قوی زیرساخت‌های گردشگری و درآمدهای ناشی از گردشگری را بر پیداشوندگی اجتماعی تأیید کرد. همچنین، تحلیل مسیر نشان داد که مشارکت محلی با ضریب 70/0 اثر کلیدی در تقویت پیداشوندگی اجتماعی دارد. نتایج این پژوهش بیانگر آن است که توسعه گردشگری روستایی می‌تواند به شرط مشارکت فعال جامعه محلی، توزیع عادلانه منافع و تقویت زیرساخت‌ها، به تحولات اجتماعی پایدار در جوامع روستایی منجر شود. این یافته‌ها می‌تواند به سیاست‌گذاران در طراحی برنامه‌های گردشگری اجتماع‌محور کمک کند.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3789_335d3d1cd7ef05ec77714a215134914c.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 A Data-Driven Model for Agritourism Development Based on Land Suitability Assessment (Case Study: Western Isfahan Province) مدل داده‌بنیان توسعه گردشگری کشاورزی بر پایه ارزیابی تناسب اراضی (مطالعه موردی: غرب استان اصفهان) 25 44 4003 10.22077/vssd.2026.10421.1341 FA امیر بهرامی دانشجوی دکتری گردشگری پردیس کیش دانشگاه تهران تهران ایران 0009-0007-8866-1071 محمدرضا رضوانی استاد، گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه ریزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0003-0830-3666 علیرضا دربان آستانه دانشیار، گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه ریزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-7977-7116 Journal Article 2025 11 10 1. Introduction In recent decades, agritourism has emerged as an important strategy for promoting sustainable rural development by diversifying rural economies, strengthening farmer livelihoods, and enhancing the socio-cultural vitality of rural areas. Particularly in regions facing structural challenges such as agricultural income instability, land degradation, and rural outmigration, agritourism offers a multifunctional pathway that integrates agricultural production with tourism activities. However, despite its growing importance, agritourism development in many regions has been pursued in an unsystematic manner, often without sufficient consideration of land suitability, environmental capacities, and institutional coordination. This has resulted in fragmented initiatives, inefficient allocation of resources, and, in some cases, environmental and socio-cultural pressures on rural areas. In Iran, and especially in the western region of Isfahan Province, agritourism has gained increasing attention due to the region’s diverse agricultural landscapes, cultural heritage, and proximity to urban tourism markets. Nevertheless, agritourism initiatives in this area have largely been implemented in the absence of an integrated conceptual framework that connects land suitability assessment with broader economic, institutional, and policy-related factors. Existing studies in the Iranian context have predominantly focused either on physical land evaluation and zoning or on identifying isolated socio-economic factors influencing rural tourism development. Consequently, there remains a significant research gap regarding how land suitability assessment can function as a central, organizing element within a comprehensive agritourism development process. The present study aims to address this gap by explaining the process of agritourism development based on land suitability assessment in the western region of Isfahan Province and by proposing a paradigmatic model that systematically integrates environmental, institutional, infrastructural, and marketing dimensions. By adopting a grounded theory approach, this research seeks to generate a context-sensitive and theoretically grounded model that can inform both academic debates and practical policy-making in agritourism development. 2. Methodology This study is applied in nature and adopts a qualitative research approach grounded in the principles of grounded theory, following the paradigmatic model proposed by Strauss and Corbin. The qualitative design was selected to capture the complexity of agritourism development as a multi-dimensional and process-oriented phenomenon shaped by diverse actors, contextual conditions, and structural constraints. Data were collected through semi-structured, in-depth interviews with 16 experts drawn from the fields of agriculture, tourism planning, rural development, and environmental management. Participants were selected using purposive and theoretical sampling to ensure diversity in professional background and practical experience related to agritourism and land management in the study region. The interview protocol was designed to explore participants’ perceptions of land suitability, agritourism resources, institutional arrangements, policy frameworks, and development challenges in rural areas of western Isfahan Province. Data analysis was conducted iteratively through three stages of coding: open coding, axial coding, and selective coding. During open coding, initial concepts were extracted directly from the interview data. In the axial coding stage, relationships among categories were identified and organized according to causal conditions, contextual conditions, intervening conditions, action/interaction strategies, and consequences. Finally, selective coding was used to integrate the categories into a coherent theoretical framework, with land suitability assessment identified as the core category around which the paradigmatic model was constructed. To enhance the credibility and trustworthiness of the findings, expert review, constant comparison, and analytical memo-writing were employed throughout the research process. 3. Findings The analysis resulted in the identification of 10 major dimensions and 28 interrelated components that together constitute the proposed paradigmatic model of agritourism development. The findings indicate that land suitability assessment functions as the core category, shaping and being shaped by multiple interacting factors across different levels of analysis. Causal conditions influencing land suitability assessment include the availability and quality of agritourism resources, such as agricultural diversity, landscape attractiveness, traditional farming practices, and local knowledge systems. These conditions act as primary drivers that determine the initial potential for agritourism development. Contextual conditions encompass infrastructural and marketing factors, including accessibility, basic services, accommodation facilities, branding strategies, and market linkages, which frame the operational environment within which agritourism initiatives are implemented. Intervening conditions are primarily related to organizational and macro-level factors, such as institutional coordination, governance structures, regulatory frameworks, and broader economic and policy environments. These factors can either facilitate or constrain the effectiveness of land-based agritourism strategies. Action and interaction strategies identified in the model include policy-making measures, capacity-building initiatives, stakeholder empowerment, and the development of supportive institutional mechanisms aimed at aligning land suitability with development objectives. The consequences of these strategies, when implemented within the proposed framework, are reflected in sustainable development outcomes across economic, socio-cultural, and environmental dimensions. These include income diversification for rural households, job creation, preservation of agricultural heritage, strengthening of local identity, and improved environmental management of rural landscapes. The main theoretical contribution of this study lies in proposing an integrated model that conceptualizes land suitability assessment not merely as a technical or physical evaluation tool, but as a central and dynamic component embedded within a broader socio-institutional and policy-driven development process. Unlike previous studies that have focused on fragmented factors or static land zoning approaches, this research highlights the systemic interactions between land suitability, institutional arrangements, infrastructure, and market mechanisms in shaping agritourism development trajectories. 4. Discussion and Conclusion The findings underscore the importance of adopting a systematic and evidence-based approach to agritourism development, particularly in environmentally sensitive and resource-constrained rural regions. By positioning land suitability assessment at the core of the development process, the proposed model provides a structured framework for aligning environmental capacities with economic and policy objectives. From a practical perspective, the model offers a comprehensive roadmap for policymakers, planners, and development practitioners. It can support spatial prioritization of suitable lands for agritourism, guide targeted investment in rural infrastructure, and inform the design of supportive policies that are grounded in the actual environmental and socio-economic capacities of rural areas. Moreover, the model can facilitate more effective coordination among stakeholders, including farmers, local communities, governmental agencies, and private sector actors. This study contributes to the agritourism and rural development literature by advancing a grounded, process-oriented model that integrates land suitability assessment into a comprehensive framework for sustainable agritourism development. By bridging the gap between physical land evaluation and broader institutional and policy considerations, the proposed paradigmatic model provides both theoretical insight and practical guidance for fostering sustainable agritourism in western Isfahan Province and other regions with similar characteristics. هدف پژوهش تبیین فرایند توسعه گردشگری کشاورزی مبتنی بر ارزیابی تناسب اراضی در منطقه غرب استان اصفهان و ارائه مدل پارادایمی در این زمینه است. مطالعه حاضر از نوع کاربردی با رویکرد کیفی است که با روش تئوری داده‌بنیاد اجرا گردید. در این پژوهش مدل نهایی در قالب مدل پارادایمی اشتراوس و کوربین ارایه شده است. داده‌ها از طریق مصاحبه نیمه‌ساختاریافته با 16 نفر از خبرگان حوزه گردشگری و کشاورزی جمع‌آوری و با استفاده از کدگذاری در سه مرحله باز، محوری و انتخابی تحلیل شد .بر اساس تحلیل داده‌ها، مدل نهایی پژوهش در قالب یک پارادایم شامل 10 بعد و 28 مؤلفه طراحی گردید. یافته‌ها نشان داد ارزیابی تناسب اراضی به عنوان مقوله محوری، تحت تأثیر شرایط علی (منابع و محرک‌های گردشگری کشاورزی) قرار دارد و از طریق راهبردهای سیاست‌گذاری و توانمندسازی و با درنظرگرفتن شرایط زمینه‌ای (زیرساخت‌ها و بازاریابی) و مداخله‌گر (عوامل سازمانی و کلان)، به توسعه پایدار در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی-فرهنگی و زیست‌محیطی منجر می‌شود. نوآری اصلی پژوهش حاضر، ارائه یک مدل یکپارچه است که در آن «ارزیابی تناسب اراضی» به‌عنوان مقوله محوری، در تعامل نظام‌مند با عوامل اقتصادی، نهادی، زیرساختی و بازاریابی، مسیر توسعه گردشگری کشاورزی را توضیح می‌دهد؛ در حالی‌که مطالعات پیشین عمدتاً به شناسایی عوامل پراکنده یا پهنه‌بندی فیزیکی اراضی بسنده کرده‌اند. نتایج پژوهش بر این نکته تأکید دارد که موفقیت در توسعه گردشگری کشاورزی مستلزم اتخاذ رویکردی نظام‌مند و مبتنی بر ارزیابی علمی قابلیت‌های محیطی است. مدل ارائه‌شده می‌تواند به عنوان نقشه راهی جامع برای برنامه‌ریزان و تصمیم‌گیران در جهت توسعه پایدار گردشگری کشاورزی در مناطق مشابه مورد استفاده قرار گیرد و به سیاست‌گذاران و برنامه‌ریزان کمک کند تا با اولویت‌بندی فضایی اراضی مستعد، تخصیص هدفمند زیرساخت‌ها و تدوین سیاست‌های حمایتی مبتنی بر قابلیت‌های محیطی، مسیر توسعه پایدار گردشگری کشاورزی را در مناطق روستایی هدایت کنند.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_4003_3ce83f544dbe69bb4fb19211fc442c2f.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 Analyzing the Causal Link between Spirituality and Environmental Responsibility from the Perspective of Local People (Case Study: Ardabil County) واکاوی پیوند علی بین معنویت و مسئولیت‌پذیری زیست‌محیطی از دیدگاه مردم محلی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان اردبیل) 45 68 3790 10.22077/vssd.2025.9876.1328 FA وکیل حیدری ساربان استاد، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری روستایی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، ایران. 0009-0007-5561-6004 Journal Article 2025 08 04 1. Introduction The global environmental crisis underscores the urgent need to transcend narrow technocratic frameworks in favor of the ethical and spiritual paradigms governing human-nature interactions. Despite ongoing policy interventions, rural Ardabil County faces severe ecological degradation—characterized by biodiversity loss, accelerated soil erosion, and unsustainable resource use—driven by the erosion of communal traditions and a shift toward short-term consumerism. While conventional rural development models typically attribute these challenges to technical or economic deficits, this research posits that environmental responsibility is fundamentally anchored in internal existential dimensions. By investigating the nexus between multidimensional spirituality, self-actualization, and ecological stewardship, this study aims to provide a critical, interdisciplinary framework for designing effective sustainability interventions in vulnerable agrarian landscapes. 2. Methodology Employing a quantitative, developmental, and correlational survey design, this study investigated the structural relationship between multidimensional spirituality and agro-environmental responsibility among rural inhabitants of Ardabil County. Primary empirical data were gathered through structured household surveys and face-to-face interviews administered to a representative sample of rural residents selected via multi-stage stratified random sampling. The measurement framework operationalized two primary constructs using rigorously validated instruments: an independent Multidimensional Spirituality Scale comprising 42 items—which conceptualized spirituality not as rigid institutional religiosity, but as a fluid existential path encompassing self-control, behavioral stability, ontological inquiry, authentic living, personal meaning generation, positive self-knowledge, compassion, existential hope, benevolence, aesthetic sensitivity, mindfulness, and autonomy from external social conformity—and a dependent Agro-Environmental Responsibility Scale adapted to regional socio-ecological conditions to measure key conservation behaviors, including sustainable agronomic practices, soil conservation vigilance, the cessation of post-harvest residue burning, rangeland preservation, sanitary waste and wastewater disposal, adoption of eco-compatible crops, and collective environmental stewardship. Construct and content validities were confirmed through an expert panel in rural development and environmental psychology, while scale reliability was firmly established using Cronbach’s alpha (α>0.78\alpha > 0.78α>0.78 across all dimensions), after which bivariate Pearson correlation coefficients and inferential statistical analyses were performed using SPSS. 3. Findings The empirical findings demonstrate that agro-environmental responsibility is fundamentally anchored in an individual’s internal spiritual and existential orientation, as evidenced by robust correlation analyses revealing highly significant positive associations (p<0.01p < 0.01p<0.01) between environmental stewardship and dimensions such as internal self-control, ontological curiosity, authentic living, self-love, existential hope, truth-seeking, benevolence, inner reconciliation, self-reliance, and psychological autonomy from societal conformism, alongside moderately significant positive relationships (p<0.05p < 0.05p<0.05) with behavioral stability, interpersonal kindness, personal meaning generation, and present-moment awareness, whereas abstract altruism, extreme individualism, superficial optimism, tolerance, and basic self-honesty exhibited no statistically significant direct effects (p>0.05p > 0.05p>0.05). Beyond these bivariate metrics, the qualitative and theoretical synthesis highlights that genuine proactive stewardship is predominantly exercised by benevolent, truth-oriented, and aesthetically conscious actors whose ethical orientation stems from an arduous process of self-actualization, delineating a profound dichotomy between autonomous moral agency (self-governance)—which fosters an expansive sense of accountability toward nature and society—and heteronomous conformity (other-governance), which breeds indifference toward ecological crises. Furthermore, while rural dwellers motivated by extrinsic rewards such as wealth, status, and social validation systematically disregarded environmental vulnerability, those oriented toward intrinsic values including justice, communal security, and the existential mode of being rather than having exhibited heightened ecological vigilance, thereby substantiating the conclusion that environmental preservation is intrinsically mediated by internal self-refinement and that only through self-governance and unattached, principled moral duty—independent of external transactional rewards—can rural actors genuinely commit to safeguarding fragile ecosystems. 4. Discussion and Conclusion The empirical evidence suggests that regulatory and technocratic interventions alone are insufficient to reverse rural ecosystem degradation in Ardabil County, as prevailing environmental apathy is deeply rooted in an alienation from moral agency and an obsession with material accumulation. This research bridges existential psychology, environmental ethics, and rural sociology by demonstrating that genuine ecological responsibility is an organic manifestation of internal existential coherence, wherein the transition toward moral self-governance enables individuals to abandon destructive, short-term utilitarian practices in favor of principled stewardship. Consequently, sustainable rural governance in Iran and comparable regions must transcend purely technical paradigms by integrating transformative socio-environmental education that fosters intrinsic ethical maturity and communal solidarity; ultimately, by anchoring ecological citizenship in this foundation of moral autonomy, policy frameworks can effectively build enduring socio-ecological resilience and ensure the long-term sustainability of fragile rural territories. سابق بر این، مشکلات زیست‌محیطی در سطح محلی و منطقه‌ای و ملی و حتی در یک امپراطوری رخ می‌داد این در حالی است که امروزه مشکلات زیست‌محیطی، تمامی گوشه و کنار جهان را درنوردیده و راه‌ برون‌رفت از این مشکل به راحتی شدنی نیست ولی، با این حال تنها متغیری که این قابلیت را دارد به میزان بسیار زیادی جلوی تشدید این بحران را بگیرد ارتقای معنویت شهروندان جهانی می‌باشد. این تحقیق از نوع کاربردی و به روش تحلیلی-تبیینی است که با استفاده از روش پیمایش انجام شده است. جامعه آماری مورد مطالعه در این پژوهش، شامل کل روستاییان بالای 15 سال ساکن در مناطق روستایی شهرستان اردبیل می‌باشد (85053N=)، که از این میان تعداد 383 نفر با استفاده از فرمول کوکران به عنوان نمونه آماری انتخاب شدند. روایی صوری پرسش‌نامه توسط پانل متخصصان مورد تایید قرار گرفت. مطالعه راهنما در منطقه مشابه جامعه آماری با تعداد30 پرسش‌نامه صورت گرفت و با داده‌های کسب شده و استفاده از فرمول ویژه کرونباخ آلفا در نرم افزار SPSS، پایایی بخش‌های مختلف پرسش‌نامه تحقیق 73/0 الی 88/0 بدست آمد. در نهایت، نتیجه حاصل از آزمون همبستگی پیرسون نشان داد به جز متغیرهای فردگرایی مثبت، تساهل و مدارا، دیگرخواهی، خوش‎بینی به آینده، گریز از نفاق و ریا و میزان خودصداقتی بین تمامی متغیرهای تحقیق رابطه مثبت و معنی‌داری وجود دارد و در خاتمه، با توجه به تحلیل نتایج، پیشنهاداتی کاربردی نیز ارائه شده است.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3790_e73fecc08ee9b0e1a876614ec3178bac.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 Modeling Opportunities and Challenges for Entrepreneurship Development in the Marketplaces of Sari County مدلسازی فرصتها و چالشهای توسعه کارآفرینی در بازارچههای شهرستان ساری 69 88 3847 10.22077/vssd.2025.10447.1340 FA شهرام ملانیا جلودار استادیار گروه علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران 0009-0002-9481-9107 علی شمس الدینی دانشیار جغرافیا، عضو هیات علمی واحد شیراز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران 0000-0001-9757-4331 سید حسن رسولی دکتری گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران 0000-0001-9067-2043 Journal Article 2025 11 09 1. Introduction Agricultural entrepreneurship serves as a critical socio-economic catalyst in contemporary rural development, functioning as a primary mechanism for optimizing resource utilization, attracting private investment, and facilitating rapid technological diffusion. In the Mazandaran Province of Iran—a region characterized by substantial natural wealth and high agricultural output—the development of entrepreneurial marketplaces represents an essential strategy for addressing the persistent challenges of rural unemployment and economic stagnation. While the province possesses significant untapped potential for value-added agricultural production, the existing entrepreneurial ecosystem faces systemic barriers, including limited access to financial capital, information asymmetry, and infrastructural deficiencies. Within this context, the establishment of efficient, well-structured marketplaces is not merely a commercial endeavor but a fundamental policy intervention. Sustainable employment and poverty reduction in rural regions such as Sari require more than simple market access; they demand a holistic framework that integrates entrepreneurial education, robust institutional support, and infrastructural improvement. Despite the acknowledged necessity of agricultural entrepreneurship, applied models tailored to the specific socio-economic context of northern Iran remain underdeveloped. This study addresses this gap by analyzing the drivers of marketplace entrepreneurship, aiming to provide a scientifically grounded model that policymakers can utilize to bolster food security, foster regional economic resilience, and mitigate the pressures of population growth and unemployment. 2. Methodology This research adopted an applied, descriptive-correlational design to model the opportunities and challenges inherent in marketplace entrepreneurship within Sari County. The study employed a mixed-methods approach, initiated by two years of participatory observation to identify context-specific variables, followed by the administration of a structured survey instrument to a representative sample of domestic and international market consumers. Sampling was executed through a geographically clustered, temporally stratified method to ensure comprehensive data capture across different market peak times. The research framework operationalized entrepreneurship development as a dependent variable measured through eight key indicators, including customer satisfaction, support for local producers, innovation, accessibility, and job preservation. Six independent variables were assessed: product quality, price competitiveness, accessibility and distribution logistics, innovation and diversity, institutional/governmental support, and consumer culture. Data analysis was conducted using SPSS, employing bivariate Pearson correlation, multiple regression analysis, and structural path modeling to evaluate the interdependencies between factors. The validity of the model was confirmed through rigorous statistical significance testing, ensuring that the findings accurately reflect the complex interplay of factors driving entrepreneurial growth. 3. Findings The quantitative findings of the research, derived from univariate and multivariate regression analyses as well as path analysis, provide detailed insights into the relationships between entrepreneurship development in marketplaces of Sari County and various independent variables. Pearson correlation tests revealed a statistically significant relationship between all independent variables—including opportunities and challenges, environmental and institutional factors, and consumer attitudes and behaviors—and the dependent variable of entrepreneurship development, with a correlation coefficient of 0.58. Among the six main components, institutional and governmental support and agricultural product quality exhibited the highest levels of influence, with correlation coefficients of 0.58 and 0.53, respectively. Other variables such as price and affordability (0.49), product accessibility and distribution (0.25), product diversity and innovation (0.20), and consumer culture and attitudes (0.34) also demonstrated positive, albeit weaker, correlations. In the multivariate regression model, four key components—namely institutional and governmental support, product accessibility and distribution, price and affordability, and agricultural product quality—were identified as significant independent variables. Collectively, these variables accounted for 42 percent of the variance in entrepreneurship development, underscoring their critical role. In terms of relative impact, institutional support exhibited the strongest effect, with a beta coefficient of 0.33, followed by accessibility and distribution (β = 0.19), product quality (β = 0.18), and price and affordability (β = 0.17). Path analysis, in which each of the four components was alternately placed as a dependent variable within the regression equations, demonstrated that both direct and indirect effects of these factors contribute meaningfully to entrepreneurship development. The total effect of each component was obtained by summing its direct influence and the aggregated indirect path effects. Finally, statistical measures such as the multiple regression correlation coefficient (0.64), adjusted R-squared value (0.42), and the significance levels of the tests indicated a high degree of validity for the proposed model. Overall, the results clearly show that these four principal factors exert a direct and substantial influence on the development of entrepreneurship in marketplaces of Sari, and that the statistical indicators reflect the robustness and precision of the analytical process. 4. Discussion and Conclusion The study provides a comprehensive analytical framework for understanding the multidimensional factors influencing agricultural entrepreneurship in Sari. The findings emphasize that institutional and governmental support acts as the vital enabler of the market ecosystem; by streamlining regulatory policies, providing financial avenues, and ensuring economic security, the state reduces entry barriers and empowers local entrepreneurs. Furthermore, the significance of product quality as a primary driver of consumer satisfaction confirms that consistency and excellence in the supply chain are non-negotiable prerequisites for market competitiveness and sustainable growth. The evidence regarding pricing and distribution highlights the pragmatic side of rural development: reasonable pricing strategies must be balanced with robust logistical infrastructure—such as improved storage facilities and distribution networks—to minimize post-harvest losses and maximize market access. While consumer culture and product innovation exhibited lower direct impacts, they function as essential indirect forces that build long-term market loyalty and adaptive resilience against shifting demand. In conclusion, fostering sustainable agricultural entrepreneurship requires a deliberate integration of economic, institutional, and social policies. Policymakers should prioritize the enhancement of governmental support mechanisms, the standardization of quality control, and the modernization of distribution logistics. By shifting from disjointed interventions to an integrated model that empowers both the producer and the market infrastructure, the province can successfully leverage its agricultural potential, ultimately fostering a resilient, employment-generating marketplace that secures both regional prosperity and food security. چالش‌های ساختاری مانند آزادسازی تجارت، کاهش حمایت‌های دولتی و تغییر الگوهای تقاضا موجب پیچیدگی در بخش کشاورزی و افزایش ضرورت توسعه کارآفرینی شده‌اند. در این میان، محدودیت‌هایی همچون کمبود سرمایه، دسترسی ناکافی به دانش و بازار و هزینه‌های بالای نهاده‌ها، نیاز به شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی موانع کارآفرینی کشاورزی را در برنامه‌ریزی توسعه بیش از پیش آشکار ساخته‌اند. هدف از تحقیق حاضر مطالعه مدلسازی فرصتها و چالشهای توسعه کارآفرینی در بازارچههای شهرستان ساری در سال 1404 میباشد. پژوهش حاضر از لحاظ هدف، از نوع کاربردی، از لحاظ نوع روش، توصیفی و همبستگی می‌باشد و از لحاظ روش گردآوری اطلاعات، میدانی میباشد. جامعه آماری این پژوهش شامل کلیه مشتریان بازارچههای شهرستان ساری میباشد. نمونه‌گیری به شیوه هدفمند-تصادفی در سه بازه زمانی (ابتدای، میانه و انتهای هفته) انجام شد و پرسشنامه از 525 نفر بالای 18 سال تکمیل گردید، دادهها با نرم افزار SPSS تحلیل شد و برای تحلیل فرضیات از ضریب همبستگی پیرسون، رگرسیون چندمتغیره و تحلیل مسیر استفاده شد. یافته‌ها نشان داد چهار مؤلفه حمایت‌های نهادی و دولتی، دسترسی و توزیع محصولات، قیمت و مقرون‌به‌صرفه بودن، و کیفیت محصولات کشاورزی توانسته‌اند 42 درصد تغییرات توسعه کارآفرینی در بازارچه‌های شهرستان ساری را تبیین کنند و بیشترین تأثیر را به خود اختصاص دهند. ضریب همبستگی چندمتغیره این مؤلفه‌ها با توسعه کارآفرینی برابر 0.64 است که نمایانگر رابطه مستقیم و معنادار آن‌هاست. همچنین فرهنگ مصرف‌کننده و نوآوری در محصولات نیز تأثیر غیرمستقیم مهمی دارند. بنابراین، تقویت این ابعاد از طریق سیاست‌های حمایتی، بهبود کیفیت و قیمت‌گذاری مناسب، به همراه افزایش فرهنگ کارآفرینی و نوآوری، راهکارهای مؤثری برای توسعه پایدار این بازارچه‌ها است.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3847_a3048e47310d6efaa4b1eaf55227bc92.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 Navigating Water Scarcity in Overexploited Aquifers: An Empirical Assessment of Agricultural Water Governance in Khoy County ارزیابی و تحلیل وضعیت حکمروایی منابع آب کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی شهرستان خوی 89 112 3876 10.22077/vssd.2025.10478.1344 FA زینب فیض الهی دانشجوی دکتری رشته جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. محسن آقایاری هیر دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. 0000-0001-5531-5606 ابوالقاسم تقی زاد فانید دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران. محمدرضا شهبازبگیان دانشیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران و محیط زیست، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران. Journal Article 2025 11 16 1. Introduction Water functions as the foundational matrix for biophysical ecosystem dynamics and constitutes an indispensable pillar of socio-economic viability, public health, energy security, and agrarian sustainability. Anthropogenic climate change, rapid demographic expansion, and intensifying consumption paradigms have exacerbated structural water deficits across arid and semi-arid regions globally. In Iran, where agricultural water demand overwhelmingly dictates national consumption trajectories, the efficacy of water resource governance is the primary determinant of rural livelihood stability and food security. In Khoy County, northwestern Iran, the rural economy is heavily reliant on irrigated agriculture and the widespread cultivation of water-intensive crops, consuming approximately 90% of available surface and groundwater resources. Unregulated groundwater abstraction and proliferation of unauthorized deep wells prompted the state to officially designate the aquifer as a “prohibited plain” in 2023. In response, regional hydraulic authorities implemented centralized engineering-driven interventions, including dam construction and primary distribution canals. Although intended to curb illegal abstractions and rationalize allocation, these top-down supply-side measures inadvertently spurred cultivated land expansion, accelerated aquifer drawdown, and heightened socio-ecological tensions—culminating in inter-village water disputes, farmer dissatisfaction, and spatial fragmentation. These pathological outcomes reflect deep-seated deficiencies in participatory governance, characterized by the marginalization of local farming communities from institutional decision-making and a pervasive disregard for localized ecological carrying capacities. Given that farmers are the frontline managers of finite water endowments, an empirical, multidimensional assessment of agricultural water governance in Khoy County is an urgent scientific and policy imperative. 2. Methodology This study implemented an applied, descriptive-analytical, and cross-sectional survey design to evaluate agricultural water governance dimensions across rural settlements in Khoy County. The target statistical population comprised all active farming and horticultural operators within the county (N=28,767) based on official registries from the General Directorate of Agricultural Jihad. A dual data-acquisition protocol combining systematic literature synthesis and empirical fieldwork was utilized. Governance indicators derived from 30 foundational scholarly sources were critically evaluated and refined for content and contextual validity through an expert Delphi panel comprising 20 prominent Iranian specialists in geography, hydrology, and rural planning. For the empirical survey, a representative sample size was initially calculated using Cochran’s formula (n=386, at a 95% confidence level) and subsequently adjusted upward to N=400 via a multi-stage stratified random sampling framework to guarantee a minimum threshold (n≥10) in smaller rural settlements. Primary empirical data were elicited using a structured five-point Likert-type questionnaire measuring multidimensional governance dimensions. The measurement instrument demonstrated exemplary internal consistency during pilot testing (n=30), yielding an aggregate Cronbach’s alpha of α=0.897. Statistical analyses were executed in SPSS through a two-tiered inferential approach: one-sample t-tests assessed mean empirical scores against the theoretical normative midpoint (M=3.0), while one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and spatial variance diagnostics delineated institutional disparities and structural inequalities across distinct rural communities. 3. Findings Findings revealed relatively favorable conditions for 'collective agreement' (M = 1.736) and 'rule of law' (M = 0.953), but substantial weaknesses in 'capacity building' (M = 0.269) and 'economic policymaking' (M = 0.049). One-way ANOVA indicated significant variations across villages in 'participation' (F-statistic implied by variance = 541.63) and 'economic policymaking' (variance = 397.5; p < 0.05). Village-level means ranked 'Azab' (1.114) and 'Bakhtiaran' (0.964) highest, and 'Raviyan' (0.306) and 'Tarimish' (0.331) lowest, with standard errors below the 0.05 significance threshold, confirming statistical significance. 4. Discussion and Conclusion A comparative contextualization of these results corroborates mainstream international water governance literature: fundamental components such as the rule of law, stakeholder engagement, equity, policy coherence, and institutional accountability represent the principal pillars of sustainable resource management, whereas technical efficiency and bureaucratic mandates remain ineffective in the absence of institutional trust. The distinct contribution of this empirical inquiry lies in the granular quantification and spatial mapping of these institutional fault lines within an over-exploited Iranian plain. The findings demonstrate that top-down engineering panaceas (dams and concrete canals) fail to resolve water scarcity and instead provoke socio-ecological conflicts when decoupled from participatory mechanisms. Sustainable water management in Khoy County is unattainable without transitioning from centralized technocratic hydro-hegemony to an adaptive, polycentric, and bottom-up governance architecture. Policymakers and regional water authorities must abandon uniform, “one-size-fits-all” directives in favor of place-based interventions that formalize local water user associations (WUAs), enhance institutional transparency, build local adaptive capacities, and integrate traditional agrarian water rights into formal regulatory decision-making frameworks. By embedding economic policymaking and participatory stewardship within local communities, regional governance can defuse socio-spatial tensions, mitigate aquifer depletion, and foster socio-ecological resilience in vulnerable rural landscapes. با توجه به کمبود منابع آب کشاورزی و وابستگی شدید نواحی روستایی به آن، حکمروایی منابع آب، به‌عنوان یکی از ضرورت‌های اصلی توسعه پایدار روستایی مطرح شده است. پژوهش حاضر که با هدف تحلیل وضعیت حکمروایی منابع آب کشاورزی در مناطق روستایی شهرستان خوی انجام گرفته، از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش، توصیفی - تحلیلی می‌باشد. جامعه آماری شامل کلیه بهره‌برداران بخش زراعی و باغی شهرستان خوی بوده که با استفاده از فرمول کوکران، حجم نمونه‌ای معادل 386 نفر تعیین و با روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند، 35 روستا انتخاب شد. ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها، پرسشنامۀ محقق‌ساخته بود که روایی آن با نظر متخصصان و پایایی آن با ضریب (897/0) آلفای کرونباخ تأیید شد. تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از آزمون‌ t تک‌نمونه‌ای و تحلیل واریانس یک‌طرفه (ANOVA) در نرم‌افزار SPSS انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که شاخص‌های «توافق جمعی» با میانگین 736/1 و «حاکمیت قانون» با میانگین 953/0 نسبت به سایر شاخص‌ها وضعیت مناسب‌تری داشتند، در حالی که شاخص‌های «ظرفیت‌سازی» با میانگین 269/0 و «سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی» با میانگین 049/0 در پایین‌ترین وضعیت قرار گرفتند. همچنین، تحلیل واریانس یک‌طرفه نشان داد که از نظر شاخص‌های «مشارکت» با واریانس 541/63 و «سیاستگذاری اقتصادی» با واریانس 397/5، تفاوت معناداری در میان روستاهای مورد بررسی وجود دارد. تحلیل میانگین نمرات در سطح روستاها نشان داد که روستاهای «عذاب» با میانگین 114/1و «بختیاران» با میانگین 964/0، بالاترین و در روستاهای «راویان» با میانگین 306/0 و «تاریمیش» با میانگین 331/0 پایین‌ترین میانگین بودند. خطای استاندارد برای تمامی روستاها پایین‌تر از سطح مطلوب و نتایج در سطح معناداری 05/0 تأیید شده است. این موضوع نشان می‌دهد که اختلافات موجود در وضعیت حکمروایی روستاها از نظر آماری معنادار است. یافته‌ها حاکی از آن است که حکمروایی منابع آب در منطقه مطالعه‌شده در سطح بسیار ضعیف قرار دارد و نیازمند بازنگری جدی، تقویت مشارکت بهره‌برداران و اصلاح سیاست‌های نهادی است.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3876_834a3bd235bca0caa53141f2ebc30438.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 Impact of Ecotourism Resorts on Rural Development and Residents’ Quality of Life: A Case Study of Robat-e Tork and Kahak Villages اثرسنجی اقامتگاه‌های بوم‌گردی بر توسعه روستایی و ابعاد زندگی روستاییان (مورد مطالعه: اقامتگاه‌های سن‌ایک و گیسوبانو در روستاهای رباط ترک و کهک) 113 140 3849 10.22077/vssd.2025.10378.1339 FA علی میکائیلی دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد طبیعت‌گردی، گروه جغرافیا و گردشگری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران سیدحجت موسوی گروه جغرافیا و گردشگری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم زمین، دانشگاه کاشان، کاشان، ایران 0000-0003-1818-439X Journal Article 2025 11 01 1. Introduction Over the past decade, eco-lodges have emerged as a vital component of rural tourism, particularly in pristine and untouched areas. As small-scale tourism enterprises that leverage local spatial, cultural, and social characteristics—such as indigenous gastronomy, handicrafts, and traditions—these establishments play a critical role in promoting sustainable tourism, extending tourist stays, and fostering rural empowerment. This study assesses the multidimensional impacts of establishing the San-Ik and Gisou-Banou ecotourism resorts on the sustainable development of Kahak and Robat-e Tork villages in Delijan County, Iran, by examining the perceptions and attitudes of the local host community. 2. Methodology This research utilizes an applied, analytical-survey methodology conducted during 2024-2025. Data were collected using a researcher-developed questionnaire, which was validated by experts and demonstrated high reliability (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.854). The study population comprised residents over the age of 20 who were directly associated with or impacted by these ecotourism resorts. A sample size of 52 participants was determined using the Morgan table and selected via available random sampling. Data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics, independent t-tests for mean comparisons, and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to examine the causal relationships between latent and observed variables regarding rural development. 3. Findings The results indicate that the establishment of these resorts has yielded significant positive impacts across economic, socio-cultural, environmental, physical-architectural, and managerial dimensions. Key economic benefits include employment generation, poverty reduction, and local product marketing. Socio-cultural impacts involve the preservation of indigenous customs and increased regional security. Environmentally, the resorts have contributed to the protection of historical heritage and improved sanitation. Physically, improvements in home aesthetics and infrastructure were observed. T-test analysis confirmed the significance of all indicators (p < 0.001), with the most influential variables identified as: job creation and access to services (economic), promotion of local culture (socio-cultural), street beautification (physical), and adherence to carrying capacity and environmental regulations (management). 4. Discussion and Conclusion The findings substantiate that ecotourism resorts serve as powerful catalysts for sustainable rural development. By moving beyond mere economic growth to encompass socio-cultural revitalization and environmental preservation, these resorts provide a platform for holistic regional progress. The study prioritizes the influential factors of ecotourism development, offering a strategic framework for planners and managers to optimize resources and implement effective management policies. Ultimately, the evidence suggests that fostering local participation and integrating environmental safeguards are essential for ensuring the long-term viability and success of rural tourism initiatives. طی دهه‌های گذشته، اقامتگاه‌های بوم‌گردی در بسیاری از نقاط ایران راه‌اندازی شده‌اند که اغلب شامل خانه‌های سنتی، کاروانسراها و باغ‌های قدیمی هستند. این اقامتگاه‌ها به‌عنوان نمادهایی از گردشگری پایدار، با بهره‌گیری از ظرفیت‌های محلی از توان توسعه‌ی اقتصادی، اجتماعی و محیط‌زیستی و اثرات ناشی از آن برخوردار هستند. در این راستا، پژوهش حاضر با به‌کارگیری روش تحلیل ساختاری به اثرسنجی اقامتگاه‌های بوم‌گردی سن‌ایک و گیسوبانو بر توسعه روستایی و ابعاد زندگی روستاییان پرداخته است. جامعه آماری پژوهش شامل مالکان و شاغلان اقامتگاه‌ها و ساکنان محلی روستاهای کهک و رباط ترک است که به طور مستقیم با اقامتگاه‌ها در ارتباط هستند. درمجموع 52 نفر با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی در دسترس مورد پرسش‌گری قرار گرفتند. ابزار جمع‌آوری داده، پرسشنامه محقق‌ساخته است که روایی آن توسط متخصصان و پایایی آن با آلفای کرونباخ 85/0 مورد تایید قرار گرفت. روش‌های تحلیل نیز شامل آزمونt، آمار توصیفی و مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری در نرم‌افزارهای SPSS و Amos است. نتایج نشان داد ایجاد اقامتگاه‌های بوم‌گردی و حضور گردشگران در روستاهای مطالعاتی سبب اشتغال‌زایی، ارتقا سطح زندگی جامعه محلی، کاهش فقر، بازاریابی محصولات (اقتصادی)، حفظ آداب و رسوم بومی، کاهش مهاجرت، افزایش امنیت (اجتماعی-فرهنگی)، حفاظت از محیط طبیعی و میراث تاریخی، بهبود بهداشت و کاهش آلودگی (محیط زیستی)، زیباسازی منازل و معابر، حفظ بناهای تاریخی، توسعه خدمات ارتباطی (کالبدی-معماری)، افزایش مشارکت مردم در برنامه‌های مدیریتی و تصمیم‌گیری‌ها (سیاست‌گذاری)، اجرای برنامه‌های مدیریتی و مقررات محیطی، آموزش جامعه میزبان و گردشگران، مدیریت دفع پسماند و رعایت قوانین ظرفیت تحمل (مدیریتی) شده‌است. درمجموع شاخص‌های کالبدی-معماری، سیاستگذاری و مدیریتی به‌ترتیب با بار عاملی 99/0، 84/0 و 71/0 اثرگذارترین عوامل هستند. اولویت‌بندی عوامل موثر، نقشه راه روشنی را در اختیار برنامه‌ریزان و مدیران قرار می‌دهد تا با تمرکز بر مهمترین آنها، نقش اقامتگاه‌های بوم‌گردی را در توسعه پایدار گردشگری روستایی تقویت کرده و از آن به‌عنوان الگویی موفق برای سایر مناطق بهره ببرند.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3849_4f5a97cf06cf69028997db51d8726d28.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 The Role of Sustainable Entrepreneurship in Rural Regeneration: A Foresight Approach in the Western Lake Urmia Region نقش کارآفرینی پایدار در بازآفرینی روستایی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری: مطالعه موردی روستاهای کشتیبان و حصارحاجی‌لار در کرانه غربی دریاچه ارومیه 141 168 3940 10.22077/vssd.2026.10816.1354 FA بهروز محمدرضاپور گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران 0000-0003-1312-1955 علیرضا جمشیدی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران 0000-0002-3594-4365 مینا حسینی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران 0009-0009-2810-6329 Journal Article 2025 12 31 1. Introduction The sharp decline in Lake Urmia’s water level over the past two decades has produced profound economic, social, and environmental consequences for surrounding rural communities. Beyond damaging agricultural livelihoods, the crisis has weakened social capital, eroded local identity, and increased community vulnerability. In this context, rural regeneration has emerged as a strategic necessity aimed at rebuilding the economic, social, and ecological capacities of villages toward sustainable development. Sustainable entrepreneurship represents an innovative approach within this framework. By integrating economic viability, social inclusion, and environmental responsibility, it facilitates multidimensional value creation and enhances local resilience. The villages of Khestiban and Hesar Hajilar, located on the western shore of Lake Urmia, were selected as case studies due to their direct exposure to the water crisis and their complementary economic and social capacities, including agriculture, handicrafts, eco-tourism, renewable energy potential, and active local participation structures. Their geographical proximity and shared environmental conditions allow for meaningful comparison and contextual generalization. Accordingly, the main research question is: How can future-oriented scenarios for rural regeneration in Khestiban and Hesar Hajilar be designed and evaluated through sustainable entrepreneurship in a way that simultaneously strengthens economic, social, and environmental dimensions and informs strategic policymaking for regional sustainable development? 2. Methodology This applied study adopts a futures-oriented approach and employs a mixed qualitative–quantitative design. In the qualitative phase, a theoretical framework was developed through a comprehensive literature review. Subsequently, four structured brainstorming sessions were conducted with 25 purposively selected participants (15 local stakeholders and 10 academic and executive experts) to identify, refine, and validate key indicators. In the quantitative phase, the finalized indicators were analyzed using the cross-impact matrix method (MICMAC) to determine their levels of influence and dependence. Key driving forces were then identified based on their structural position. Scenario Wizard software was subsequently employed to generate internally consistent future scenarios. Content validity was ensured through expert consensus, and reliability was assessed via sensitivity analysis within MICMAC. 3. Findings The findings indicate that effective rural regeneration on the western shore of Lake Urmia depends on the simultaneous strengthening of sustainable entrepreneurship across economic, social, and environmental dimensions. Economically, drought-resistant crops, small rural industries, renewable energy development, and eco-tourism were identified as key drivers of income diversification and livelihood resilience. Socially, social capital, women’s empowerment, youth entrepreneurial training, and inter-village networking enhance participation, cohesion, and social innovation. Environmentally, sustainable water management, soil conservation, green belt development, and adoption of new technologies are critical for reducing ecological pressure. Cultural–identity factors—including local heritage, handicrafts, crisis narratives, and cultural branding linked to Lake Urmia—also emerged as reinforcing elements of social cohesion and collective resilience. Scenario analysis revealed two contrasting futures: Desirable scenario: characterized by integrated resource management, active community participation, green innovation, and strengthened social capital. Crisis scenario: marked by inefficient governance, declining participation, environmental degradation, and heightened economic vulnerability. These results suggest that the future trajectory of the region is highly contingent upon the strategic management of key drivers and the institutionalization of sustainable, locally grounded entrepreneurial practices. 4. Discussion and Conclusion The study demonstrates that integrating a futures approach with participatory processes provides a robust framework for rural regeneration planning. Cross-impact analysis identified drought-resistant agriculture, sustainable water management, renewable energy, rural industries, eco-tourism, social capital, and women’s empowerment as critical structural drivers shaping future development pathways. The two identified scenarios highlight that regional outcomes depend on governance quality, community engagement, and innovation capacity. Addressing the research question, the findings confirm that scenario design and evaluation become operationally meaningful when sustainable entrepreneurship functions as the central strategic axis. By simultaneously reinforcing economic prosperity, social cohesion, and environmental stewardship, this approach provides a practical foundation for evidence-based policymaking and long-term regional sustainability in the Lake Urmia context. کاهش شدید سطح آب دریاچه ارومیه پیامدهای گسترده‌ای بر معیشت کشاورزی، هویت محلی و انسجام اجتماعی روستاهای پیرامونی داشته و ضرورت بازآفرینی روستایی را به یک اولویت راهبردی بدل ساخته است. در این زمینه، کارآفرینی پایدار به‌عنوان رویکردی چندبعدی توانسته است زمینه‌ساز خلق ارزش‌های اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی گردد و مسیر توسعه پایدار را هموار سازد. هدف این پژوهش، بررسی نقش کارآفرینی پایدار در بازآفرینی روستاهای کشتیبان و حصارحاجی‌لار با تأکید بر توانمندسازی جوامع محلی، ارتقای تاب‌آوری اجتماعی و حفاظت از محیط‌زیست است. این پژوهش با رویکرد آینده نگاری و به‌صورت ترکیبی (کیفی–کمی) انجام شد. در بخش کیفی، چارچوب نظری از طریق مرور منابع علمی استخراج گردید و نشست‌های گروهی و طوفان فکری با مشارکت خبرگان و ذینفعان محلی شامل دهیاران، اعضای شورا، کارآفرینان و کارشناسان توسعه برگزار شد تا شاخص‌های کلیدی شناسایی و پالایش شوند. جامعه پژوهش، ذینفعان محلی در دو روستای کشتیبان و حصار حاجی‌لار بود و نمونه‌گیری به‌صورت هدفمند انجام گرفت؛ در مجموع ۲۵ نفر (۱۵ محلی و ۱۰ متخصص دانشگاهی و اجرایی) در فرآیند پژوهش مشارکت داشتند. در بخش کمی، شاخص‌ها وارد ماتریس اثرات متقاطع میک‌مک شدند تا میزان نفوذ و وابستگی عوامل مشخص گردد و سپس با نرم‌افزار سناریوویزارد سناریوهای آینده تدوین شد. برای اعتبار نتایج، روایی محتوا از طریق اجماع خبرگان و پایایی با آزمون حساسیت در میک‌مک بررسی گردید. یافته‌ها نشان داد که بازآفرینی روستایی زمانی اثربخش خواهد بود که کارآفرینی پایدار در سه سطح اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی به‌طور هم‌زمان تقویت شود. در این میان مجموعه‌ای از شاخص‌های کلیدی شامل کشت‌های مقاوم به کم‌آبی، مدیریت پایدار منابع آب، انرژی‌های تجدیدپذیر، صنایع کوچک روستایی، گردشگری بوم‌محور، سرمایه اجتماعی، توانمندسازی زنان و برندینگ فرهنگی بیشترین نقش را در آینده دارند. تحلیل سناریوها دو چشم‌انداز اصلی را ترسیم کرد: سناریوی مطلوب با ویژگی‌های توسعه پایدار و نوآورانه، و سناریوی بحرانی که تداوم الگوهای ناکارآمد و تشدید بحران‌های اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی را نشان می‌دهد.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3940_3fa146219c48a4393aace23e8f353125.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 A Grounded Theory Approach to Technology-Based Businesses for Sustainable Rural Development: Evidence from Kermanshah Province ارائه مدل کسب‌وکارهای فناورانه در توسعه پایدار روستاهای استان کرمانشاه با رویکرد داده ‏بنیاد 169 192 3942 10.22077/vssd.2026.10509.1346 FA معصومه آینه دانشجوی دکترای کارافرینی، گروه مدیریت و کارآفرینی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران. 0000-0002-6380-8790 بیژن رضایی دانشیار گروه کارآفرینی، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران.‏ مهدی حسین پور استادیار گروه علوم میان رشته ای، دانشکده فناوری های راهبردی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران 0000-0002-6800-402X Journal Article 2025 11 17 1. Introduction Introduction: In the contemporary landscape of development, technology-based businesses act as ‎transformative engines, playing a vital role in advancing sustainable rural development goals by ‎offering innovative solutions. This key role is realized through effective mechanisms such as ‎increased productivity, sustainable job creation, and a meaningful enhancement of quality of life. ‎Within this context, achieving sustainable development in the villages of Kermanshah Province is ‎a strategic priority, contingent upon the creation and deployment of innovative business models ‎capable of simultaneously and harmoniously supporting the three pillars of economic, social, and ‎environmental sustainability. Given this necessity, technology-based businesses, with their unique ‎capabilities in creating employment opportunities, boosting productivity, and opening doors to ‎new markets, have emerged as pivotal actors in this arena. The present study, adopting a ‎grounded theory approach, is designed with the aim of discovering, formulating, and presenting ‎a comprehensive, indigenous, and operational model for this category of businesses. Relying on ‎authentic field data extracted from the specific and unique context of the villages in Kermanshah ‎Province, this model ultimately provides a strategic and executable framework for policymakers, ‎planners, and entrepreneurs. In the context of global digital economy transformations and the ‎necessity of focusing on the balanced development of rural areas, examining the role of ‎technology-based businesses in the sustainability of villages in Kermanshah Province is of ‎strategic importance. This section of the research delves deeper into analyzing how technology ‎influences various dimensions of sustainable rural development and aims to critically explore the ‎opportunities and challenges of this transformation within the region's specific geographical-‎cultural context.‎ 2. Methodology This study is applied in purpose and qualitative and exploratory in approach, conducted ‎inductively using the grounded theory method. The research population consisted of a spectrum ‎of experts and specialists, including faculty members from the Entrepreneurship and Information ‎and Communication Technology departments of Razi University and Islamic Azad University in ‎Kermanshah Province, key informants knowledgeable in the management of technology-based ‎businesses, successful entrepreneurs, and experienced heads of rural cooperatives. The sampling ‎process was conducted using theoretical, non-probability, judgmental, and purposive methods, ‎with its cessation contingent upon reaching theoretical saturation. This point was achieved after ‎‎17 interviews; however, to ensure greater confidence and enhance data credibility, three ‎additional interviews were conducted. The primary data collection tool was semi-structured, in-‎depth interviews with selected individuals, chosen based on their practical experience, scientific ‎expertise, sufficient knowledge, and deep familiarity with the research topic. The duration of ‎these interviews varied between 40 and 65 minutes. The data collection process, in accordance ‎with the principle of theoretical saturation, continued until the research categories were complete ‎and no new information was extracted in the final interviews, which itself served as evidence of ‎achieving saturation. The data obtained from the interviews were analyzed following the Strauss ‎and Corbin approach through a three-stage coding process (open, axial, and selective), leading to ‎the formation of the initial research model. To ensure the validity and reliability of the questions ‎and data, techniques such as member checking and intra-subject agreement were used to ‎guarantee that the findings accurately reflected field realities. These methodological provisions ‎enhanced the trustworthiness of the research and laid the necessary groundwork for presenting a ‎comprehensive and practical model. This research was conducted during the period April to June ‎‎2024, and its theoretical foundations and empirical background formed the intellectual ‎framework governing all stages of design, implementation, and analysis.‎ 3. Findings The research findings indicate that in the final paradigmatic model, eight categories of factors ‎were identified as "Causal Conditions": economic, socio-cultural, infrastructural-technological, ‎political-governmental, environmental-geographical, educational-research, technical-innovative, ‎and communicative-network factors. Together, these factors transform technology-based ‎businesses into an essential and inevitable lever for the sustainable development of villages in ‎Kermanshah Province. The "Contextual Conditions" affecting this phenomenon include four ‎main domains: the physical and structural conditions of the villages, legal and ownership ‎frameworks, knowledge and information infrastructures, as well as historical backgrounds and ‎past experiences. Five categories of factors also act as "Intervening Conditions": the specific ‎conditions governing the regional innovation ecosystem, institutional-organizational conditions, ‎cognitive-behavioral conditions (attitudes and beliefs), adaptive conditions, and transformative ‎conditions. The "Core Phenomenon" of this model was determined to be "Technology-Based ‎Businesses in Sustainable Rural Development." In confronting this phenomenon and under the ‎influence of the aforementioned conditions, three main categories of "Strategies" are proposed: ‎human capital empowerment and development strategies, market and sales development ‎strategies, and technology-based product and service development strategies. Finally, the ‎successful implementation of these strategies within the specified context will lead to four major ‎categories of "Consequences": transformation in livelihood and economic patterns, the ‎emergence of new outcomes and institutions, the realization of achievements in the field of digital ‎health, and the occurrence of widespread transformations in education.‎ 4. Discussion and Conclusion In final summary, it can be emphasized that technology-based businesses, by intelligently ‎integrating innovation and modern technologies, possess tremendous potential to guide ‎sustainable transformation in the rural sphere. The functions of these businesses, including ‎improving access to digital markets, increasing agricultural productivity, developing clean ‎energy, and creating new job opportunities, not only strengthen the local economy and increase ‎the resilience of rural communities but also act as an effective factor in reducing rural migration ‎and preserving and protecting the environment. Accordingly, comprehensive support and ‎planning for strengthening these businesses can be considered a key and pioneering strategy on ‎the path to achieving balanced, inclusive, and sustainable development for rural areas. To ‎accelerate the development of technology-based businesses in the villages of Kermanshah ‎Province, it is proposed to establish rural innovation centers focused on local needs. These centers ‎should provide technical and financial advisory services and conduct training courses in digital ‎skills for villagers. Furthermore, developing digital infrastructure, including improving high-‎speed internet coverage, equipping villages with electronic payment systems, and creating digital ‎platforms for marketing local products, is essential. In the agricultural sector, promoting ‎precision agriculture technologies and smart irrigation systems can enhance productivity. ‎Additionally, the formation of technology-based rural cooperatives and the development of e-‎tourism leveraging the region's natural attractions are recommended. Government support ‎through the approval of special financial facilities and tax exemptions for rural technology-based ‎businesses can also play an effective role in the sustainable development of these areas.‎ کسب‌وکارهای فناورانه با بهره‌گیری از نوآوری، پتانسیل بالایی در ارتقای بهره‌وری، اشتغال‌زایی و بهبود کیفیت زندگی در مناطق روستایی دارند. با این حال، تدوین مدلی جامع برای این نقش در بسترهای منطقه‌ای ضرورت دارد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارائه مدل کسب‌وکارهای فناورانه در توسعه پایدار روستاهای استان کرمانشاه، با اتکا به رویکرد داده‌بنیاد (Grounded Theory) انجام شده است. چارچوب نظری پژوهش از طریق مرور سیستماتیک ادبیات تحقیق تدوین شد و داده‌های اصلی از طریق مصاحبه‌های نیمه‌ساختاریافته با ۱۷ نفر از خبرگان، از جمله اساتید حوزه فناوری اطلاعات، کارآفرینان و مدیران تعاونی‌های روستایی گردآوری گردید. تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از روش استراوس و کوربین صورت گرفت. یافته‌های پژوهش حاکی از آن است که پدیده محوری «کسب‌وکارهای فناورانه در توسعه پایدار روستاها» تحت تأثیر تعامل میان عوامل زمینه‌ای (شرایط کالبدی، حقوقی و مالکیتی)، عوامل مداخله‌گر (اکوسیستم نوآوری و ساختارهای نهادی) و عوامل علی (ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فرهنگی) قرار دارد. بر اساس مدل استخراج شده، راهبردهای کلیدی شامل توانمندسازی انسانی و توسعه بازارهای فروش، و پیامدهای اصلی شامل تحول در الگوهای معیشتی و ظهور ساختارهای نهادی جدید است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تقویت این کسب‌وکارها از طریق بهبود دسترسی به بازارهای دیجیتال و توسعه انرژی‌های پاک، نه‌تنها اقتصاد محلی را تقویت می‌کند، بلکه با کاهش مهاجرت و حفظ میراث طبیعی، بستری برای توسعه متوازن و پایدار روستایی فراهم می‌آورد.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3942_ec36e2ba64f11c9e910e0353e0836d81.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 Assessment and Evaluation of Sustainable Tourism Development Indicators in Arid Regions (Case Study: Southwestern Villages of Khorasan Razavi Province) بررسی و ارزیابی شاخص‌های توسعه گردشگری پایدار در مناطق خشک (مطالعه موردی: روستاهای جنوب غرب استان خراسان رضوی) 193 214 3941 10.22077/vssd.2026.10551.1347 FA الیاس چهرازی دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. 0009-0003-0439-9143 اصغر نوروزی دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-5609-7855 سید امیرمحمد علوی زاده دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. ریحانه سلطانی مقدس دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران. 0000-0001-7271-0130 Journal Article 2025 11 22 1. Introduction Arid and semi-arid rural areas constantly grapple with severe structural constraints, including economic vulnerability, inadequate infrastructure, climate-induced water scarcity, and escalating out-migration. In fragile ecosystems where conventional agriculture is increasingly compromised, sustainable tourism emerges as a strategic alternative to diversify local livelihoods and stimulate regional resilience. However, realizing this potential requires a balanced assessment of multidimensional sustainability indicators aligned with local bio-ecological capacities. This study investigates and evaluates sustainable tourism indicators across designated target villages in Southwestern Khorasan Razavi Province, Iran, establishing an empirical foundation for resilient rural planning. 2. Methodology This applied study adopted a quantitative, descriptive-analytical design. The empirical scope focused on 15 tourism-targeted rural settlements in Kashmar County during 2023–2025. Data were gathered through a comprehensive structured questionnaire distributed to a panel of 28 key regional experts selected via purposive snowball sampling until thematic saturation was achieved. Content validity was confirmed by an academic expert panel, and instrument reliability was demonstrated by a robust Cronbach’s alpha coefficient (α=0.947). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and one-sample ttt-tests against a theoretical neutral test value (μ=3.0) across four core dimensions: Natural, Socio-Cultural, Economic, and Managerial–Infrastructural. 3. Findings The results indicated that the Natural dimension, with a mean of 3.94 and a t-statistic of 10.56, showed the highest agreement regarding the presence of pristine natural attractions, ecological tours, and environmental capacities, with a significance level less than 0.001, confirming a very high potential for tourism development. The Socio-Cultural dimension, with a mean of 3.93 and t = 10.55, also emphasized the preservation of cultural identity, local participation, and social interactions, indicating homogeneity of perceptions among respondents. In the Economic dimension, a mean of 4.09 and t = 71.11 revealed the strongest economic potential in terms of job creation, income generation, and ecotourism investments. Finally, the Managerial–Infrastructural dimension, with a mean of 3.91 and t = 5.65, suggested a moderate but significant desirability concerning policy-making, infrastructure, and institutional coordination. In aggregate, the test results rejected the null hypothesis at a significance level less than 0.001 across all four dimensions, confirming the high desirability of rural tourism development indicators in arid regions. These findings emphasize that natural ecological capacities, social capital, economic opportunities, and improved management mechanisms can be integrated to form appropriate indicators for the four-dimensional sustainability of rural tourism in Southwestern Khorasan Razavi, serving as a foundation for conservation, support, and sustainable investment policies. 4. Discussion and Conclusion The findings confirm that rural settlements in arid regions possess substantial untapped potential for sustainable ecotourism and geotourism, capable of offsetting climatic and agricultural vulnerabilities. Achieving long-term resilience, however, hinges on reconciling economic valorization with strict ecological carrying capacities and institutional efficiency. Rather than relying on top-down infrastructure delivery, regional policymakers and planners should capitalize on existing socio-ecological assets while strengthening multi-institutional governance and local capacity-building. This integrated, four-dimensional framework provides actionable insights for designing sustainable development and investment strategies in climate-sensitive dryland environments. گردشگری به عنوان یکی از پویاترین بخش‌های اقتصاد جهانی، نقشی حیاتی در توسعه پایدار و تبادل فرهنگی ایفا می‌کند. این حوزه، نه‌تنها با ایجاد اشتغال و تزریق ارز به اقتصادهای محلی، بلکه به واسطه تسهیل تعاملات میان‌فرهنگی، به افزایش درک متقابل و حفظ میراث غنی بشری کمک می‌نماید؛ لذا بررسی ابعاد اقتصادی و اجتماعی این صنعت برای سیاست‌گذاران امری ضروری است. گردشگری پایدار در مناطق خشک به‌دلیل شکنندگی بوم‌سازگان و محدودیت منابع طبیعی، نیازمند رویکردی مبتنی بر مدیریت هوشمندانه و ارزیابی دقیق شاخص‌های پایداری است. بررسی ظرفیت‌های بوم‌زیستی این مناطق می‌تواند زمینه‌ساز توسعه‌ای متوازن میان حفاظت محیط‌زیست، رشد اقتصادی و رفاه اجتماعی باشد. از این منظر، تحلیل شاخص‌های توسعه‌ی پایدار نه‌تنها ابزار سنجش اثربخشی سیاست‌های گردشگری است، بلکه مسیر دستیابی به پایداری بلندمدت را در اقلیم‌های خشک و نیمه‌خشک روشن می‌سازد. هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی و ارزیابی شاخص‌های توسعه گردشگری پایدار در مناطق خشک در روستاهای جنوب غربی خراسان رضوی است. نوع تحقیق کاربردی، روش مورد استفاده توصیفی- تحلیلی و برای گردآوری داده از روشهای کتابخانهای و میدانی(پرسشنامه) بهره گرفته شد. یافتههای تحقیق نشان میدهد که همه‌ ابعاد توسعه‌ی گردشگری روستایی در مناطق خشک از دید پاسخ‌دهندگان مطلوب و معنادار هستند (Sig < 0.001). بعد طبیعی با میانگین 94/3 و تی = 56/10 بیشترین پتانسیل را در زمینه‌ی جاذبه‌های بکر و قابلیت‌های زیست‌محیطی دارد و بعد اجتماعی‌ـ‌فرهنگی با میانگین 93/3 بر حفظ هویت و مشارکت محلی تأکید می‌کند. بعد اقتصادی با میانگین 09/4 و تی = 11/7 قوی‌ترین زمینه‌ی درآمدزایی و اشتغال‌زایی را نشان داده و بعد مدیریتی با میانگین 91/3 و تی = 65/5 بیانگر هماهنگی نهادی نسبتاً مطلوب است. در مجموع، یافته‌ها پایداری چهار بعدی گردشگری روستایی را بر مبنای ظرفیت بوم‌زیستی، سرمایه‌ی اجتماعی، اقتصاد محلی و مدیریت کارآمد تأیید می‌کنند.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3941_29e1c59be16c852670e3be302e8c303b.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 7 2 2026 06 22 Structural Analysis of the Challenges and Opportunities for Tourism Development in Kandovan Village: A Futures Studies Approach تحلیل ساختاری چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های توسعه گردشگری در روستای کندوان با رویکرد آینده نگاری 215 240 4004 10.22077/vssd.2026.11004.1359 FA مسعود حق لسان دانشیار، گروه معماری و شهرسازی، واحد ایلخچی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ایلخچی، ایران. 0000-0001-9826-0086 Journal Article 2026 02 15 1. Introduction The historical village of Kandovan, with its unique rock-hewn architecture and pristine natural landscapes, is regarded as one of Iran’s most valuable cultural and tourism heritages. Featuring cone-shaped carved houses, this village is a living example of the peaceful coexistence of humans and nature over centuries. Today, due to its distinctive attractions, it holds a special place in the country’s tourism industry and welcomes a large number of domestic and international visitors. The growing popularity of this tourist destination, while bringing valuable economic and social opportunities to the region, has also created serious challenges. Changes in the traditional fabric, the transformation of authentic architectural identity, pressure on local resources and infrastructure, and threats to the region’s ecosystem sustainability are among the issues that cast significant uncertainty over Kandovan’s future. Under such circumstances, a purely quantitative approach to tourism development cannot address the existing complexities, and the need to rethink management models with a forward-looking approach is increasingly felt. The futures studies approach, using structural analysis methods, provides an effective tool for identifying driving forces, key uncertainties, and the interplay between challenges and opportunities. This approach enables the mapping of alternative scenarios and the formulation of strategic pathways to achieve a desirable future. Hence, the main research question is posed as follows: What are the challenges and opportunities of future tourism in Kandovan Village? 2. Methodology The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in nature, with a futures studies approach. Using structural analysis, this study identifies and prioritizes the key variables affecting the challenges and opportunities of tourism in Kandovan Village. The participant population includes 30 specialists, tourism experts, rural development planners, university professors, local entrepreneurs, and experts familiar with the Kandovan region, selected through purposive and snowball sampling. The data collection tool is a structured, matrix-based questionnaire based on the cross-impact analysis method, whose validity was confirmed through face and content validity, and whose reliability was verified using the expert consensus method. For data analysis, the MicMac software is used, which is capable of analyzing complex relationships among variables, determining their influence and dependence levels, and mapping key variables on a scatter plot. In structural analysis, data are analyzed using a cross-impact matrix. This matrix is a two-dimensional table in which the research variables are placed in both the rows and the columns. 3. Findings This study was conducted to identify the key variables affecting the challenges and opportunities of tourism in Kandovan Village using a futures studies approach. After experts confirmed the components, 28 influential variables were extracted. Then, using MicMac software and cross-impact matrix analysis, the pattern of influence and dependence among variables was mapped. In this study, the interactions between the components of tourism challenges and opportunities in Kandovan Village were examined through a futures studies approach, based on the results of Delphi sessions and with the participation of 30 managers. The adopted analytical process made it possible to identify the nature of relationships and the degree of influence of each component on others. In this regard, 28 cross-impact matrices were formed, each representing the degree of influence of one component on the others. Given that the software raises the matrix to successive powers to calculate indirect effects, the sum of indirect influences and dependencies reaches multi-digit numbers, making comparison with direct effects difficult. To solve this problem, the software provides a table showing the share of factors based on direct and indirect effects on a scale of ten thousand. Accordingly, the total sum of influences and dependencies is calculated as ten thousand, and each factor’s share of this number represents its contribution to the entire system. The component of protective laws, regulations, and criteria has the largest share in direct and indirect influence. Furthermore, all the key components identified in direct influence are repeated, with slight shifts, in indirect influence. 4. Discussion and Conclusion The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying the challenges and opportunities of tourism in Kandovan Village by applying a futures studies approach and structural analysis method. In response to the main research question—"How can the key challenges and opportunities of tourism in Kandovan Village be identified using a futures studies approach and structural analysis?"—the results indicate that the tourism system of Kandovan is in an unstable state, and the variables are mostly scattered around the diagonal axis of the scatter plot, reflecting the complexity and multidimensionality of the issue. According to the research findings, among the 28 components examined, three components—"protective laws, regulations, and criteria," "institutional participation and coordination," and "development of eco-lodges"—were identified as the most influential key factors in both direct and indirect analyses. The component of protective laws and regulations, with the highest influence score (478 in direct effects and 469 in indirect effects), was determined as the most important driver of tourism development in Kandovan. Furthermore, the economic-institutional components, with a total influence of 448 and dependence of 444, play the most significant role in the system, indicating the importance of the institutional and governance dimension in managing tourism at this unique destination. In contrast, technology and digital marketing components, with a total influence of 132 and dependence of 156, have the lowest degree of influence in the system and are primarily classified as independent or secondary leverage factors. This finding suggests that the potential of new technologies and digital marketing, despite their high capacity for tourism development in Kandovan, has not yet been effectively utilized in the region’s tourism management system. روستای صخره‌ای کندوان با معماری خاص، یکی از مهم‌ترین مقاصد گردشگری روستایی ایران است که علیرغم پتانسیل‌های کم‌نظیر، با چالش‌هایی نظیر فشار گردشگران، تغییرات کالبدی در بافت تاریخی و تهدید اصالت فرهنگی مواجه می‌باشد. هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی و تحلیل ساختاری چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های گردشگری در این روستا با رویکرد آینده نگاری است. پژوهش حاضر ازنظر هدف کاربردی و ازنظر ماهیت توصیفی-تحلیلی با رویکرد آینده نگاری است. جامعه مشارکت‌کنندگان شامل ۳۰ نفر از متخصصان، مدیران و خبرگان آشنا با منطقه کندوان بودند که به روش نمونه‌گیری هدفمند و گلوله برفی انتخاب شدند. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از روش تحلیل ساختاری و نرم‌افزار میک مک استفاده گردید. ۲۸ مؤلفه در چهار بُعد محیطی-کالبدی، اجتماعی-فرهنگی، اقتصادی-نهادی و فناوری-بازاریابی دیجیتال شناسایی و در قالب ماتریس اثرات متقابل توسط خبرگان ارزیابی شدند. نتایج نشان داد سیستم گردشگری کندوان از وضعیت ناپایداری برخوردار است. سه مؤلفه «قوانین، مقررات و ضوابط حفاظتی»، «مشارکت و هماهنگی نهادی» و «توسعه اقامتگاه‌های بوم‌گردی» به‌عنوان کلیدی‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار شناسایی شدند. مؤلفه‌های اقتصادی- نهادی با مجموع تأثیرگذاری ۴۴۸ و تأثیرپذیری ۴۴۴، بیشترین نقش را در سیستم ایفا می‌کنند. همچنین «رضایتمندی ساکنان از توسعه گردشگری» به‌عنوان عامل ریسک و «پایداری زیست‌بوم» و «مدیریت پسماند» به‌عنوان عوامل تأثیرپذیر طبقه‌بندی شدند. مؤلفه‌های فناوری و بازاریابی دیجیتال کمترین میزان تأثیرگذاری را داشته و در گروه عوامل مستقل قرارگرفته‌اند. بر اساس نتایج تحلیل ساختاری با رویکرد آینده نگاری امکان شناسایی متغیرهای کلیدی و روابط پیچیده میان چالش‌ها و فرصت‌های گردشگری کندوان را فراهم آورد. مؤلفه‌های نهادی-حقوقی به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های توسعه پایدار گردشگری در این مقصد شناسایی شدند. بازنگری در قوانین حفاظتی، تقویت هماهنگی نهادی و توسعه اقامتگاه‌های بوم‌گردی از مهم‌ترین راهکارهای پیشنهادی برای مدیریت پایدار گردشگری در کندوان هستند.

https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_4004_f8eb278a8bce873ef365b45e939da38a.pdf