دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 Spatial Analysis of Fig Product Value Chain Performance in Rural Areas of Kohmareh District, Kohchenar County تحلیل فضایی عملکرد زنجیره ارزش محصول انجیر در نواحی روستایی بخش کوهمره، شهرستان کوهچنار 1 26 3308 10.22077/vssd.2025.8046.1270 FA محمد رضا رضوانی استاد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0003-0830-3666 علیرضا دربان آستانه دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-7977-7116 حسین حسین پور دانشجوی کارشناسی‌ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران 0009-0002-4079-408X Journal Article 2024 08 16 <strong>1.Introduction</strong><br />Agriculture plays a vital role in the rural economy and supports other sectors by providing livelihoods, food, raw materials, and labor. This sector is closely interlinked with social, political, environmental, cultural, and economic processes, significantly influencing the spatial evolution of rural settlements. In Iran, agriculture holds a large share of GDP, non oil exports, employment, and food supply. However, a lack of coordination among producers, consumers, input suppliers, and logistics systems has resulted in inefficiencies in production and marketing, as well as inequitable benefit distribution along the agricultural value chain. The agricultural value chain encompasses various stages—from on farm production to final consumption—each adding value to the product. Proper development of this chain can ensure fair benefit distribution, increase rural income, reduce poverty, enhance processing and storage industries, and minimize waste. Conversely, neglecting value chains can reduce investment, limit job creation, and hinder rural development. Within Iranian agriculture, horticulture is an essential sub sector that contributes notably to food security and rural livelihoods. Owing to its diverse climatic and geographical conditions, Iran ranks among the world’s top producers of horticultural crops. Among these, figs occupy a special place both nationally and globally; Iran holds the world’s fifth position in fig production, with Fars Province serving as the country’s primary production hub. In the Kohmereh District, despite the high potential for fig cultivation, challenges such as insufficient communication infrastructure, limited farmer knowledge, and restricted access to financial resources have impeded the development of a robust fig value chain. Farmers in this area largely act as raw product suppliers, gaining minimal benefit from value added processes. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to examine the performance of the fig value chain and its spatial distribution across the villages of Kohmereh District, to identify challenges, and to propose solutions for improvement.<br /> <br /><br /><strong> Methodology</strong><br /><br />This study adopts a practical orientation with a descriptive–analytical approach to investigate the fig value chain. Data were collected using both documentary and survey methods. In the documentary section, indicators and relevant components were extracted from academic articles, books, and official reports. In the survey section, data were collected through structured questionnaires designed with relative quantitative scales. The data were organized across five spatial levels: village, district, city, province, and national level. Because the numerical data ranged from 0 to 100 (percent), each value was divided by 100 to produce a standardized range from 0 to 5. Questionnaire validity was verified by a panel of professors and agricultural experts, while reliability was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient for each link in the value chain, all of which fell within acceptable limits. The normality of the data was tested through skewness and kurtosis values. Statistical analyses—including one sample t tests, ANOVA, and Duncan post hoc tests—were performed using SPSS software. Spatial analysis and mapping of the value chain performance were conducted using ArcMap and the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolation method.<br /><strong> </strong><br /><br /><strong> Findings</strong><br /><br />A one‑sample t‑test was applied to assess the performance of the fig value chain at the village level. A fixed mean of 3 was set as the threshold value: average scores above 3 indicated good performance, whereas those below 3 indicated poor performance. Results show that Input supply performed relatively well (mean = 3.260); Production performed strongly (mean = 4.060); Processing and storage (mean = 2.231), marketing and sales (mean = 2.466), and consumption (mean = 2.542) all exhibited weak performance.<br />The overall mean performance of the fig value chain was 2.912, signifying generally unfavorable performance across the study area. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) confirmed statistically significant differences in value‑chain performance among the studied villages (p < 0.05). Duncan’s post‑hoc test stratified the villages into four performance levels:<br /><br />Level 1 (weakest performance): Imamzadeh Pir‑Abwalhasan, Upper Papun, Lower Papun, Gargdan<br />Level 2 (moderate‑low performance): Mordak, Chekak<br />Level 3 (average performance): Abul Hayat<br />Level 4 (strong performance): Baghistan Abul Hayat, Dosiran, Baghistan Kandaei<br /><br />Spatial analysis of the value‑chain performance revealed that areas within Kohmereh District display varying agricultural and horticultural conditions. The eastern and southeastern regions—including Baghistan Kandaei, Dusiran, and Baghistan Abul Hayat—benefit from mountainous topography, favorable climate, adequate rainfall, and fertile soil, resulting in strong horticultural output, particularly figs. The northern and central regions, such as Abul Hayat, Chekak, and Mordak, exhibit moderate yields and engage simultaneously in horticultural and agricultural activities. By contrast, the western and southern plains perform poorly, focusing more on general crop cultivation than horticulture.<br /> <br /><br /><strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong><br /><br />Agriculture and related enterprises—particularly those organized within food value chains—play a pivotal role in increasing agricultural productivity and product value while strengthening linkages between agricultural and non agricultural sectors. Farmers face multiple constraints at different stages of the value chain, and smallholders in particular require structured value chain management to capture greater benefits. In Fars Province, and especially in the Kohmereh region, the fig value chain holds major economic and social importance. The study findings indicate a contrast among value chain components: input supply and production perform satisfactorily, whereas processing, storage, marketing, and consumption remain weak. This imbalance limits farmers’ participation in value added activities, allowing middlemen to capture a disproportionate share of the profits. Geographically, the eastern and southeastern areas of Kohmereh demonstrate better performance due to superior climatic and soil conditions, while the western and southern plains show weaker horticultural outcomes as they remain primarily focused on field crop cultivation. To improve the fig value chain, policy interventions should include Enhanced government support programs, Organization of annual fig festivals and promotional events, Specialized training for farmers, Reduction of the self marketing system and creation of cooperatives, Investment in cold storage facilities, packaging units, and processing industries, and Integration of agro tourism initiatives. Such efforts would increase productivity and farmer income while contributing to sustainable rural development in the region. از رویکردهای نوین در زمینه توسعه کشاورزی، تمرکز بر زنجیره ارزش محصولات کشاورزی است. با این وجود، تاکنون مطالعه‌ای در داخل کشور و به ویژه در استان فارس، به عنوان مهم‌ترین استان تولیدکننده محصول انجیر، در خصوص زنجیره ارزش صورت نگرفته است. در بخش کوهمره استان فارس، با وجود بالا بودن سطح زیرکشت و مقدار قابل توجه تولید محصول انجیر، روستاییان از مزایای آن به شکل مناسبی منتفع نمی‌شوند. لذا، هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی عملکرد زنجیره ارزش محصول انجیر و تحلیل توزیع فضایی آن در سطح روستاهای بخش کوهمره می‌باشد. نوع و روش پژوهش حاضر، کاربردی و توصیفی-تحلیلی است. گردآوری داده‌ها به صورت اسنادی و پیمایشی انجام گرفته است. روایی ابزار پژوهش بر اساس نظرات خبرگان و پایایی آن با محاسبه ضریب آلفای کرونباخ تایید شد. جامعه آماری مورد مطالعه شامل 935 بهره‌بردار محصول انجیر در روستاهای بخش کوهمره بوده‌اند که با استفاده از فرمول کوکران تعداد 270 بهره‌بردار به عنوان نمونه تعیین شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از آزمون‌های آماری تی تک نمونه‌ای، تحلیل واریانس یک‌طرفه و آزمون تعقیبی دانکن از نرم‌افزار spss 26 و برای ترسیم نقشه توزیع فضایی از ابزار IDW در نرم افزار ArcMap استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که عملکرد زنجیره ارزش محصول انجیر در حلقه‌های تامین و تولید با میانگین‌های 3/260 و 4/060 مطلوب و در حلقه‌های فرآوری و نگهداری 2/231، بازاریابی و فروش 2/466 و مصرف 2/542 نامطلوب می‌باشد و زنجیره ارزش با میانگین 2/912 از عملکرد نامناسبی برخوردار است. همچنین نتایج حاصله نشان داد که در بین روستاهای نمونه در سطح بخش به لحاظ توزیع فضایی عملکرد زنجیره ارزش تفاوت وجود دارد و نشان‌دهنده عملکرد مطلوب در محدوده‌ی شرقی بخش و منطبق بر روستاهای باغستان کنده‌ای، دوسیران و باغستان ابوالحیات با میانگین‌های 3/378، 3/349و 3/327، عملکرد متوسط در محدوده‌های شمالی‌و مرکزی بخش‌و عملکرد نامناسب در محدوده‌های غرب‌و جنوب بخش است. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3308_c4b43ae017af4001c5193d310bf00942.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 Factors Influencing the Strengthening of Economic Linkages Based on Local Capacities in Rural Areas (A Case Study of the Razaviyeh District, Mashhad County) عوامل مؤثر در تقویت پیوندهای اقتصادی بر اساس ظرفیت‌های محلی در مناطق روستایی (مورد مطالعه بخش رضویه شهرستان مشهد) 27 52 3684 10.22077/vssd.2025.9740.1324 FA زینب عرفانی دانشجوی دکتری،گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران 0009-0006-5229-0136 حمید شایان استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران خدیجه بوزرجمهری دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران 0000-0001-6027-1898 حمدالله سجاسی قیداری دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران 0000-0001-9456-7312 Journal Article 2025 07 12 <strong> Introduction</strong> The expansion and diversification of economic activities in rural areas stimulate investment, enhance production capacity at the village level, and ultimately strengthen the sustainability of rural economies. Capacity building in rural contexts involves establishing robust relationships and sequential processes through which community members can express their views on development measures and participate actively in their implementation. It also encompasses enhancing the ability to set collective goals, execute targeted actions within development plans, and build unified responses to the limitations imposed by scarce resources. In this regard, an enabling environment—anchored in sound and legitimate policies—plays a central role in empowering rural communities to pursue sustainable growth. Accordingly, the present study seeks to analyze inter‑sectoral economic linkages among the agricultural, industrial, and service sectors by utilizing existing endogenous capacities within rural settlements.   <strong> Methodology</strong> This study employs a descriptive–analytical approach, combining library research and field surveys through a structured questionnaire. The statistical population consists of 303 rural households across 18 villages in the Razavieh District, alongside 26 regional experts. Analytical procedures included Pearson correlation coefficients, one‑way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Tukey’s post‑hoc test, performed in SPSS software. Spatial analysis was conducted using GIS, and causal relationships among variables were examined through the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) approach in Smart‑PLS software.   <strong> Findings</strong> From the perspectives of rural households and experts, villages in the study area exhibited significant variation in general and economic capacities. Among households, Shorak Saburi reported the lowest mean general capacity score (2.5), followed by Derakht Bid, Qeshlaq, and Dehneh Chehel (2.6 each), while Miami ranked highest (3.0) and Jimabad closely followed (2.9). Experts identified Jimabad as having the strongest economic capacities (3.2) and linkages (3.6), whereas Babanazar showed the weakest economic capacity (1.9) and Dehneh Chehel the weakest linkages (2.5). Given normally distributed data, a one-way ANOVA confirmed statistically significant differences in general and economic capacities across villages grouped into low, medium, and high categories (p < 0.05). Tukey’s post-hoc tests revealed that high-capacity villages demonstrated significantly stronger production and urban–rural linkages than low-capacity ones (mean difference = 0.763, p = 0.015) from the household perspective, and higher linkage strength than medium-capacity villages (mean difference = 0.437, p = 0.02) from the expert viewpoint. These patterns were further validated by a Structural Equation Model (SEM), which showed that agricultural development exerts the strongest influence on economic linkages (R² = 0.956), with the overall linkage construct also demonstrating excellent explanatory power (R² = 0.934). The model confirms that agricultural development not only directly enhances economic linkages but also positively drives complementary rural activities and, to a lesser extent, industrial revival—highlighting its pivotal role in sustaining and strengthening rural economic networks.   <strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong> The findings confirm that the development of productive sectors—agriculture, industry, and complementary activities (particularly tourism and recreation) —serves as the main driver of rural economic dynamics. Structural reforms and policy adjustments aimed at improving agricultural diversification, marketing, and productivity are essential mechanisms for achieving economic resilience. The agricultural and non‑agricultural sectors are connected through multiple channels: production and consumption linkages, as well as the exchange of labor and capital resources. Thus, strengthening these economic ties is critical for promoting the growth and sustainability of rural production systems. Empirical analysis highlights that the villages of Derakht Bid and Jarakhshak Olia possess weak natural capacities due to limited agricultural prosperity, while Qarqrok Sofli, Jimabad, and Miami exhibit relatively stronger capacities, attributable to larger cultivation areas and higher productivity. Concerning physical indicators, most villages maintain favorable conditions, supported by reliable access to electricity, gas, and drinking water. However, human–social and economic indices reveal downturns in production due to drought conditions, restricted access to livestock inputs, and the decline of rainfed and irrigated farming. Local capacities in Shorak Saburi remain underdeveloped, influenced by immigrant populations and reduced engagement in agriculture and animal husbandry. Villages such as Jarakhshak Alya, Dehne Chehel, Derakht Bid, and Babanazar face challenges linked to isolation, small populations, land scarcity, and long distances to service centers, while Qeshlaq suffers from land acquisition by urban residents and weak transport connectivity. Conversely, Miami benefits from tourism activities, and Jimabad enjoys advantages related to land size, infrastructure, and accessibility, positioning them as regional hubs of capacity and investment attraction. Economic linkages are most evident in the exchange of agricultural and livestock products—particularly wheat and barley supply—between cities and villages. Overall, the results demonstrate a clear positive association between capacity level and economic linkage strength. Villages with higher capacity exhibit stronger inter‑sectoral and urban–rural connections than those with medium or low capacity. In the structural equation model, the effects of agricultural development, complementary activities, and industrial revitalization on linkages are collectively substantial. Elevating rural economic capacities directly enhances the density and effectiveness of economic networks. Specifically, agricultural development and complementary activities emerged as significant drivers of linkage formation, while industrial revitalization showed a relatively minor impact. Strengthening these capacities—through investment, skill development, and integrated planning—will reinforce economic interdependence, improve income stability, and support sustainable rural development in Razavieh District and comparable regions. توسعة فعالیت‌های اقتصادی و تنوع فعالیت‌های تولیدی مناطق روستایی سبب افزایش میزان سرمایه گذاری، تولید در سطح روستاها و در نهایت پایداری اقتصاد روستایی می‌گردد. تحقیق حاضر به تحلیل پیوندهای اقتصادی در بخش‌های کشاورزی، صنعت و خدمات با بهره گیری از ظرفیت‌های موجود پرداخته است. پژوهش حاضر از روش توصیفی- تحلیلی و روش گردآوری اطلاعات به صورت کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی استفاده گردید. جامعه آماری 303 نفر از خانوارهای روستایی از طریق فرمول کوکران، در 18 روستای بخش رضویه و 26 نفر از کارشناسان منطقه انتخاب شدند. جهت تجزیه تحلیل از آزمون‌های همبستگی پیرسون و تحلیل واریانس یک طرفه و آزمون توکی در نرم افزار SPSS، تحلیل فضایی از نرم افزار GIS و مدل معادلات ساختاری در نرم افزار (smart (PLS استفاده شد. نتایج نشان‌می‌دهد که ظرفیت‌های عمومی و اقتصادی با توجه به ارزیابی شاخص‌ها در وضعیت مطلوبی قرار نگرفته‌اند. جهت تحلیل پیوندهای اقتصادی بر اساس ظرفیت‌های محلی از آزمون تحلیل واریانس یک طرفه و توکی استفاده شد. بررسی اختلاف روابط دو میانگین بین سه سطح از ظرفیت‌ها در رابطه با پیوندهای اقتصادی نشان داد که ظرفیت‌های عمومی و ظرفیت‌های اقتصادی زیاد، نقشی در غنای پیوندهای اقتصادی داشته است. به منظور سنجش میزان تأثیر ظرفیت‌های اقتصادی بر پیوندهای اقتصادی از مدل معادلات ساختاری استفاده گردید. لذا متغیر توسعه کشاورزی با ضریب تعیین 956/0 بیشترین تأثیر را بر پیوندهای اقتصادی داشته است. توسعه کشاورزی و فعالیت‌های مکمل تأثیر معناداری با پیوندهای اقتصادی و توسعه کشاورزی تأثیر معناداری با فعالیت‌های مکمل و احیای صنعت داشته است در حالی که احیای صنعت تأثیر کمی بر پیوندهای اقتصادی داشته است. همچنین مقدار R² نشان‌می‌دهد 4/93 درصد پیوندهای اقتصادی با توسعه کشاورزی، احیای صنعت و فعالیت‌های مکمل تبیین شده‌است. لذا تأثیر ظرفیت‌های اقتصادی بر پیوندهای اقتصادی قوی می‌باشد. یعنی به هر میزان ظرفیت‌های اقتصادی بیشتر باشد پیوندهای اقتصادی بیشتر بوده است. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3684_c90e274d55309db944076afb3ff9c391.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 Assessing the Process of Power Distribution and Redistribution in Modern Management (A Case Study of the Rural Settlements of Zobarkhan County, Razavi Khorasan Province) ارزیابی فرآیند توزیع و جابجایی قدرت در مدیریت نوین (مطالعه موردی: روستاهای شهرستان زبرخان در استان خراسان‌رضوی) 53 84 3291 10.22077/vssd.2025.8318.1282 FA سید محمد رفیعی خراسانی دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران 0009-0004-1032-8912 ابوذر پایدار دانشیار دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران 0000-0002-5951-1206 جواد بذرافشان دانشیار دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی محیطی، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران Journal Article 2024 10 25 <strong> Introduction</strong> In developing countries, the sustainable development of rural areas has evolved under the influence of spatial paradigms such as globalization, industrialization, and urbanization. These transformations have laid the foundation for the formulation of strategies, goals, and policies underpinning rural development projects (Li et al., 2021: 279). Since the 1970s, rural development initiatives have primarily aimed to improve living standards and alleviate poverty. In the 1980s, with the rise of the concept of sustainable development, new dimensions emerged in environmental, economic, socio-cultural, and physical (infrastructural) indicators of rural growth (Moradi Meshii & Talebi, 2017: 166). Among the multiple aspects of sustainable rural development, the social dimension—encompassing political, cultural, and security components—has been instrumental in promoting democracy and fostering the creation of local associations and institutions. For instance, within the subcomponents of political stability and civic awareness, it can be observed that, following the Second World War, many governments moved toward administrative centralization while concurrently recognizing the importance of local organizations within governmental management systems (Abiyar et al., 2015: 160).   <strong> Methodology</strong> This study aims to identify and evaluate the process of power distribution and transfer within the framework of modern rural management in the villages of Zabarkhan District, Razavi Khorasan Province. The research is applied in purpose and employs a descriptive–analytical method, utilizing both library (documentary) and field (questionnaire and observation) techniques for data collection. To assess the validity of the questionnaire, the instrument was reviewed by 12 experts in rural management and rural sociology. The experts’ feedback was used to refine the items and finalize the indicators. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation) and inferential statistics (one-sample t test and analysis of variance). For ranking and classifying the villages based on the level of power distribution, the Marcus and Merrick models were applied. According to the 2023 (1402 SH) census, the total rural population of the study area is 28,771 people. Using Cochran’s formula with an error margin of 0.05, a sample size of 384 respondents was determined and proportionally distributed among the villages according to population to ensure equal selection opportunity (see Table 2). The reliability of the questionnaire was confirmed using Cronbach’s alpha in SPSS, showing a value of 0.878 for the indicators of power distribution and transfer processes—indicating satisfactory internal consistency for the research tool. <strong> </strong> <strong> Findings</strong> A total of 384 questionnaires were completed, evaluating six main indicators: personal and psychological (15 items), economic (12 items), social (16 items), physical (10 items), environmental (11 items), and institutional–managerial (12 items). Results from the one-sample t test indicated that all indicators of power distribution scored above the optimal threshold of 3, with statistically significant differences observed across all indicators (p < 0.05). The mean values were as follows: psychological = 3.49, physical = 3.26, institutional–managerial = 3.23, social = 3.21, economic = 3.11, and environmental–natural = 3.10—ranking from highest to lowest performance, respectively. The one-way ANOVA results further confirmed significant variation (p < 0.05) across villages in the process of power distribution and transfer under modern management. According to the Marcus ranking model, the best-performing villages were Dizbad Alia and Ahvan, while Daneh Kashfieh and Sakhder ranked lowest in terms of modern managerial power distribution.   <strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong> Modern rural management, introduced by developed nations and promoted by international development institutions, emerged as a response to the inefficiencies of earlier rural development approaches. Over recent decades, its importance has grown, particularly in developing countries, as a key mechanism for fostering effective governance and participatory development. Considering that more than three decades have passed since the adoption of modern rural management practices in Iran, assessing the degree to which its objectives have been realized is increasingly crucial. This study evaluated the process of power distribution and transfer within the modern rural management framework in the villages of Zabarkhan District, Razavi Khorasan, using both descriptive and inferential methods (one-sample t test, ANOVA, and Marcus–Merrick ranking). The findings indicated that, from respondents’ perspectives, the overall process of power distribution and transfer exceeded optimal levels across all measured indicators, with statistically significant differences confirming the robustness of this pattern. The highest mean scores were observed in the psychological (3.49), physical (3.26), and institutional–managerial (3.23) categories, while socioeconomic and environmental indicators followed closely behind. The ANOVA results also confirmed significant inter-village differences (p < 0.05). Finally, results from the Marcus ranking model revealed that Dizbad Alia and Ahvan villages achieved the strongest levels of power decentralization, whereas Daneh Kashfieh and Sakhder displayed the weakest. These findings underscore the unequal realization of modern management principles across local contexts. Strengthening local authority structures, enhancing managerial competence, and improving institutional mechanisms remain essential to achieving equitable and sustainable rural governance. قدرت، برآیند روابط و کثرت مناسبات انسان‌هاست. قدرت رابطه‌ای است که فرد به کمک آن اراده خویش را بر دیگران اعمال می‌کند و یا سرنوشت و امور آنها را در دست می‌گیرد. بنابراین مهم‌ترین مسئله در ارتباط با مدیریت نوین روستایی، به‌کارگیری ابزارها و تفکراتی است که زمینه را برای کاهش چالش‌های روستایی مانند فقر گسترده، نابرابری فزاینده، بیکاری، مهاجرت و تخریب‌های زیست‌محیطی فراهم کند. هدف از پژوهش حاضر، ارزیابی فرایند توزیع و جابه‌جایی قدرت در مدیریت نوین روستاهای شهرستان زبرخان در استان خراسان‌رضوی است. نوع تحقیق، کاربردی و روش مورد استفاده، توصیفی-تحلیلی است. برای گردآوری داده‌ها از روش‌های کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی (با ابزار پرسشنامه) استفاده شد. جامعه آماری تحقیق بر اساس آمار 1402، برابر با 28771 نفر است که بر اساس فرمول کوکران، تعداد 384 پرسشنامه به روش تصادفی توزیع شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از روش‌های آماری (t و تحلیل واریانس) و مدل مارکوس و مریک استفاده شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که انتقال و توزیع قدرت در نواحی روستایی شهرستان زبرخان، پدیده‌ای اتفاقی نیست؛ بلکه تابعی از عوامل شش‌گانه ویژگی‌های شخصی و ذهنی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، عملکردها و دستاوردهای کالبدی، محیطی و نهادی-مدیریتی افراد است. نتایج آزمون‌ها بیانگر تفاوت معنادار شاخص‌های فرایند توزیع و جابه‌جایی قدرت در مدیریت نوین روستایی است و سطح معناداری آنها کمتر از 0.05 است. به‌طوری که ویژگی‌های شخصی و ذهنی با میانگین (3.49)، اقدامات و دستاوردهای کالبدی با (3.26)، نهادی و مدیریتی با (3.23)، اجتماعی با (3.21)، اقتصادی با (3.11) و محیطی و طبیعی با (3.10) به ترتیب، بالاترین میانگین را به خود اختصاص داده‌اند. همچنین پیشنهاد می‌شود که نظارت و کنترل بر شاخص‌های مؤثر در کسب قدرت، از سوی ارگان‌ها و سازمان‌های دولتی مورد توجه قرار گیرد و افرادی که لیاقت فردی و عمومی بالاتری دارند، تقویت شوند و عرصه حضورشان در مدیریت روستا فراهم شود. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3291_980a875ff6ef9c2d75e74307cbf5d205.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 Evaluation of the Environmental Quality of Villages after the Implementation of the Rural Guide Plan (Case study: Villages in the Central District of Dargaz County) ارزیابی کیفیت محیطی روستاها پس از اجرای طرح هادی روستایی (مطالعه موردی: روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان درگز) 85 112 3306 10.22077/vssd.2024.7924.1265 FA علی اکبر عنابستانی استاد گروه جغرافیای انسانی و آمایش، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران 0000-0003-1461-5893 بهناز بابایی دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2024 07 19 <strong> Introduction</strong> Smart villages are rural communities that actively respond to challenges and create new opportunities through innovative approaches. Over the years, various strategies have been proposed and implemented to address the issues faced by rural areas. One of the most prominent among these is the development of Rural Guide Plans, which aim to enhance the quality of rural physical and spatial structures, thereby improving socio-economic conditions and contributing to national rural development. The Rural Guide Plans represent the first comprehensive national initiative for the physical organization of rural areas, introduced in 1988. Their implementation in Khorasan Razavi Province began concurrently with other provinces across the country. However, similar to experiences elsewhere, these plans have encountered several challenges. Primarily focused on the physical and spatial aspects of rural settlements, a substantial portion of these plans has been executed nationwide. Essentially, Rural Guide Plans function as practical tools for rural development, providing a foundation for revitalization and guiding economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and physical dimensions of growth. In Dargaz County, the implementation of these plans began in 2014. Since then, numerous plans have been prepared for various rural areas across the county, covering approximately 70% of its villages. Given the extensive number of implemented plans, the size of the rural population, and census data from 2016 indicating that 44% of the county’s population resides in villages, evaluating the performance and outcomes of these plans is critically important. The central research question of this study is: <em>To what extent have the Rural Guide Plans contributed to enhancing environmental quality in the rural areas of Dargaz County, and how effective have these plans been in achieving their objectives?</em>   <strong> Methodology</strong> This study employs a descriptive–analytical research methodology. Data were collected through both library and field methods. Library research provided the necessary statistics, documents, and theoretical background, while field studies involved direct observation, surveys, questionnaire distribution, and interviews conducted among the study’s statistical population. The research population comprised villages in Dargaz County where Rural Guide Plans had been fully implemented. Data analysis was carried out using statistical techniques such as descriptive statistics, the T-test, and correlation analysis. Descriptive tables and charts were first used to examine the villages’ physical–spatial indicators. Subsequently, a T-test assessed the impact of the plans on quality-of-life indicators, offering an overall evaluation of living conditions in villages with Rural Guide Plans within Dargaz’s central district. <strong> </strong> <strong> Findings</strong> Survey responses were collected from 172 participants, of whom 72.6% (146 individuals) were male and the remainder female. In terms of marital status, 76% (157 individuals) were married. Regarding educational attainment, 54.3% (96 participants) held a bachelor’s degree, 43 had a diploma, and 7% possessed postgraduate qualifications. To investigate the plans’ impact on the environmental quality of the studied villages, a T-test was employed—an appropriate method for comparing the status of two dependent groups using interval data to assess changes before and after an intervention. The results showed that 123 participants reported an improvement in environmental quality following plan implementation, while 49 observed a decline. Statistical analysis (z = −1.114, p = 0.111) indicated a significant difference in environmental quality before and after the implementation of the plans. The T-test produced a T-value of 11.614 for environmental quality, signifying a strong and positive impact of the Rural Guide Plans from the villagers’ perspective. Further analysis of physical–spatial indicators yielded the following T-values: 15.486 for physical indicators, 11.573 for functional indicators, 5.234 for environmental indicators, and 7.125 for aesthetic–perceptual indicators. Pearson’s correlation test revealed significant positive relationships between all plan dimensions and environmental quality (p < 0.01), confirming that effective implementation of the plans substantially improved the quality of the rural living environment.   <strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong> Evaluating the environmental quality of villages after implementing the Rural Guide Plans in Dargaz County underscores their importance as both a social and environmental initiative. These plans, as components of local development and economic programs, contribute to achieving sustainable development goals and enhancing residents’ quality of life. The findings correspond with earlier studies by Anabestani and Akbari (2012), Azizpour et al. (2012), Mohammadi et al. (2013), and others, reinforcing the positive role of Rural Guide Plans in improving living environments. Future assessments should also examine the plans’ broader social and economic impacts, including income growth, employment generation, local economic development, support for local production, and the strengthening of social and cultural ties among villagers. Overall, a comprehensive evaluation of environmental quality following the implementation of Rural Guide Plans in Dargaz County highlights the need for an integrated analysis of their multifaceted impacts—on residents’ lives, the environment, and the rural economy—to inform effective decision-making for the improvement and sustainability of rural living conditions. پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی تأثیر طرح‌های توسعه‌ای بر کیفیت محیطی روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان درگز، در قالب یک مطالعه توصیفی–تحلیلی طراحی و اجرا شده است. داده‌های مورد نیاز از طریق مشاهده میدانی، مصاحبه و پرسشنامه جمع‌آوری شد. حجم نمونه با استفاده از فرمول کوکران 172 خانوار تعیین و انتخاب پاسخ‌دهندگان با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی ساده انجام گرفت. تحلیل داده‌ها با به‌کارگیری روش‌های آمار توصیفی و استنباطی و با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای SPSS و ArcGIS صورت پذیرفت. یافته‌ها نشان داد که 123 نفر از پاسخ‌دهندگان بهبود و 49 نفر کاهش کیفیت محیطی را پس از اجرای طرح‌ها گزارش کرده‌اند. آزمون آماری تفاوت معناداری بین وضعیت کیفیت محیطی قبل و بعد از اجرای طرح‌ها را تأیید کرد (z = -1.114، p = 0.111). از میان روستاهای مورد مطالعه، روستای اوتان‌لو با کیفیت محیطی «بسیار عالی»، نمونه‌ای موفق از هم‌افزایی مدیریت دولتی و طراحی مهندسی است؛ به‌طوری‌که بافت کالبدی–فضایی منسجم، شبکه چهارراهی منظم، هماهنگی در ساخت‌وساز و به‌کارگیری مصالح باکیفیت در معابر، به‌طور چشمگیری به ارتقای کیفیت محیطی این روستا کمک کرده است. در مقابل، روستای سعدآباد با وجود اجرای طرح، به‌دلیل عدم رعایت ضوابط فنی، استفاده از مصالح نامناسب و ساختار فضایی نامنظم، شاهد کاهش کیفیت محیطی بوده است. این یافته‌ها برجستگی نقش برنامه‌ریزی دقیق، نظارت کیفی و طراحی فضایی هوشمند در موفقیت طرح‌های روستایی را آشکار می‌سازد. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3306_16fc18d787294ad5171100e33d05d4e2.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 The Challenges of Organic Rice Production in The Rural Area of Shushtar چالش‌های تولید برنج ارگانیک در فضای روستایی شهرستان شوشتر 113 130 3307 10.22077/vssd.2025.7944.1266 FA مسلم سواری دانشیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران عباس میرزایی استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران حسن آزرم استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران Journal Article 2024 07 22 <strong> Introduction</strong><br /><br />Conventional agriculture employs more than 300 types of hazardous chemical compounds—including pesticides and synthetic fertilizers—to control pests and enhance soil fertility. The use of synthetic inputs (e.g., fertilizers, pesticides) has become a common global practice aimed at boosting productivity and profitability in crop production. However, intensive farming leads to the accumulation of toxic substances in crops, the atmosphere, groundwater, and soil. Farmers engaged in non organic cultivation, as well as consumers of non organic food, are exposed to a range of health risks and diseases such as asthma, autism, physical disabilities, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and various forms of cancer. The widespread application of pesticides, particularly herbicides, has severe potential impacts on both environmental and human health. Conventional agricultural systems depend heavily on synthetic chemicals, causing biodiversity loss and damage to crucial ecosystem services around the world. Findings from numerous studies demonstrate that in conventional agriculture, the indiscriminate use of chemical inputs harms the environment and degrades natural resources. Therefore, the main focus of this research is to identify the challenges associated with organic rice production—the most essential food crop for society.<br /> <br /><br /><strong> Methodology</strong><br /><br />The study’s statistical population comprised all rice farmers in Shushtar County. The sample size of 388 individuals was determined using the Krejcie and Morgan table, and participants were selected through a stratified sampling method with proportional assignment. The primary research instrument was a structured questionnaire, the validity of which was confirmed by a panel of experts, while reliability was verified using Cronbach’s alpha coefficient and composite reliability. Data analysis was conducted in two phases—descriptive and inferential—using SPSS and LISREL software packages.<br /><strong> </strong><br /><br /><strong> Findings</strong><br /><br />The analysis of the challenges surrounding organic rice production, based on farmers’ perspectives, revealed that the two most significant barriers were “the low level of farmers’ technical skills” and “the lack of government subsidies for organic cultivation.” Furthermore, exploratory factor analysis classified the challenges into six major categories: Educational barriers, Economic and support barriers, Social barriers, Motivational barriers, Marketing barriers, and Legal and policy barriers.<br /> <br /><br /><strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong><br /><br />This study investigated the challenges of organic rice production from the viewpoint of rice farmers in Shushtar County. The findings confirmed that the main obstacles were farmers’ insufficient skills and the absence of financial subsidies for organic cultivation, consistent with previous studies by Panillo et al. (2019), Yu et al. (2020), and Haryanto et al. (2021). Factor analysis revealed six dimensions—educational, economic and support, social, motivational, marketing, legal, and policy making barriers—that collectively explained 68.639% of the total variance. These results align with the findings of Hriadi et al. (2019) and Kokur et al. (2019). Additionally, the structural equation modeling confirmed the identified barriers. The outcomes of this research provide valuable insights for policy makers and environmental planners, offering guidance for promoting safer agricultural practices and encouraging sustainability in the natural environment. رشد فزاینده‌ی جمعیت و بحران کمبود غذا، عدم مدیریت صحیح منابع و مصرف بی‌رویه‌ی مواد شیمیایی موجب بروز مشکلات زیست‌محیطی در اکوسیستم‌های طبیعی شده‌است. نتایج بسیاری از تحقیقات حاکی از آن است که در کشاورزی متعارف با کاربرد بی‌رویه نهاده‌های شیمیایی، محیط را ویران کرده و منابع طبیعی را دچار تحلیل می‌کند. لذا ایده اصلی این پژوهش شناسایی چالش‌های تولید برنج ارگانیک به‌عنوان مهمترین و اصلی‌ترین غذای جامعه بود. جامعه آماری مورد مطالعه شامل کلیه‌ی شالیکاران شهرستان شوشتر بود. حجم نمونه با استفاده از جدول کرجسی و مورگان تعداد 388 نفر تعیین، و نمونه‌ها با روش نمونه‌گیری طبقه‌ای با انتساب متناسب برای مطالعه انتخاب شدند. ابزار اصلی تحقیق پرسشنامه‌ای بود که روایی آن توسط پانل متخصصان و پایایی آن توسط ضریب آلفای کرونباخ و پایایی ترکیبی تایید شد. تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها در دو بخش آمار توصیفی و استنباطی توسط نرم‌افزارهای SPSS و LISREL انجام شد. نتایج بررسی چالش‌های تولید برنج ارگانیک از دیدگاه افراد مطالعه شده نشان داد که مهم‌ترین چالش‌ها شامل «پایین بودن سطح مهارت‌های شالیکارن» و «عدم اعطای یارانه به شالیکاران برای کشت ارگانیک» بود. علاوه بر این، تحلیل عاملی چالش‌های توسعه کشت برنج ارگانیک را در عامل‌های آموزشی، اقتصادی و حمایتی، اجتماعی، انگیزشی، بازاریابی، قانونی و سیاست‌گذاری طبقه‌بندی نمود که این عامل‌ها 639/68 درصد از کل واریانس عامل‌ها را تبیین نمود. علاوه بر این چالش آموزشی با تبیین 638/18 درصد از واریانس کل عامل‌ها به‌عنوان مهمترین چالش تولید برنج ارگانیک شناسایی شد. همچنین چالش‌های شناسایی شده در این بخش نیز توسط مدل‌سازی معادلات ساختاری مورد تأیید قرار گرفتند. نتایج این پژوهش می‌تواند به سیاست‌گذاران این حوزه در راستای ترویج رفتاری ایمن در محیط طبیعی کمک شایانی نماید. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3307_d7aab42e6b85c49c0f1d3a115e939c74.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 Assessment of Tourism Business Challenges in the Rural Areas of the Oramanat Region, Kurdistan بررسی چالش‌های کسب‌وکارهای گردشگری در نواحی روستایی منطقه اورامانات کردستان 131 154 3309 10.22077/vssd.2025.8161.1276 FA شادی قبادی دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران 0009-0000-2357-6596 بهروز محمدی یگانه دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران 0009-0006-9702-1327 مهدی چراغی استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی و اجتماعی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران 0009-0002-3652-9689 Journal Article 2024 10 02 <strong> Introduction</strong> Tourism is globally recognized as the largest and most complex industry, encompassing diverse dimensions that must correspond to the geographical characteristics of different regions. In areas with significant potential for tourism development that have not achieved satisfactory progress, it is essential to identify the elements and factors that impede tourism growth and dynamism. Tourism enterprises, meanwhile, play a fundamental role in local economic development and job creation. However, numerous threats expose these businesses to collapse and bankruptcy. In such contexts, identifying and analyzing the challenges faced by tourism enterprises and proposing appropriate solutions constitute the central axis of planning and strengthening the sustainability of this sector. Examining these challenges requires a systemic approach, which—if properly analyzed and managed—can expedite tourism development more rapidly than anticipated. The border villages of the Oramanat region exemplify this scenario: due to their unique geographical setting, remarkable architecture, pristine landscapes, and captivating scenery, they have evolved into a major tourist zone hosting multiple enterprises. Yet they face serious problems, including lengthy administrative procedures for business startup, management inefficiencies in launching tourism projects, a lack of supportive legal frameworks for entrepreneurs, insufficient communication and transport infrastructure, social and cultural disruptions, and exposure to natural disasters such as floods and earthquakes. As a result, most tourism businesses in the region still lack operational sustainability and stability. This study therefore aims to identify and examine the challenges surrounding tourism enterprises in the Oramanat region and propose practical solutions to enhance their resilience and sustainability. By attaining a precise understanding of these challenges, effective measures can be undertaken for the development of local tourism businesses and the broader regional economy.   <strong> Methodology</strong> The present research adopts an applied orientation and a descriptive–analytical framework. To evaluate the impacts and risks affecting tourism enterprises, the FMEA (Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) technique—originally elaborated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency—was employed. In the phase of identifying business-related challenges, assessing associated damages, and designing solutions to reduce vulnerability, both library-based and field methods (interviews and direct observation) were used for data collection. Given that this research relies on expert judgment, sampling continued until theoretical saturation was achieved using the targeted snowball technique. Finally, 20 professionals familiar with tourism-business processes in the region were selected as informants. After identifying the challenges and proposed corrective measures, those solutions were prioritized using the Best–Worst Method (BWM). The BWM model was applied to determine the relative weight of each indicator and their compatibility level. The compatibility index in BWM ranges from 0 to 1, with values closer to 0 indicating higher consistency in expert evaluation. <strong> </strong> <strong> Findings</strong> The research findings identified 37 challenges (risks) across four dimensions—economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and managerial. Among these, only six challenges fell within an acceptable range, while 31 challenges were classified as severe or critical. The most acute problems were found to be unequal distribution of tourism income, lack of legislation to mitigate environmental risks and pollution, and insufficient attention to human resources within the industry. The implementation of the proposed corrective strategies demonstrated notable efficacy. After applying the recommended actions, only five risks remained at the critical level, while 26 risks improved to an acceptable status—indicating that 83% of previously severe risks were successfully upgraded. Altogether, 16 key proposals were formulated to address the challenges of tourism businesses in the Oramanat region. Among these recommendations, establishing robust public, institutional, and technological infrastructure emerged as the most influential solution for organizing and stabilizing tourism operations.   <strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong> The results obtained from the risk assessment model (FMEA) revealed 37 distinct risks distributed among four principal dimensions—economic, socio-cultural, environmental, and managerial—corroborating previous findings by Brun et al. (2014), Bruton et al. (2010), Akbari and Sadeghi (2022), and Mohammadi (2021). Of these identified risks, 31 (83.7%) were classified as severe, underscoring the urgent need for targeted policy interventions and optimal management strategies. Based on the capacities and conditions of the Oramanat region, 16 feasible solutions were ultimately proposed, the implementation of which resulted in an 83.7% improvement, thereby reducing most risks to acceptable levels and leaving only six (16%) in the critical category. The most successful outcomes were achieved in addressing deficiencies in management systems and administrative structures (549 units improvement), lack of environmental protection and regulatory mechanisms (477 units improvement), and insufficient attention to human resources and training (468 units improvement), findings consistent with those of Akbari et al. (2022). Moreover, prioritization results derived from the BWM model indicated that among all proposed interventions, the foremost priorities were the provision of public and institutional infrastructure, the enhancement of technological facilities, and the strengthening of environmental management together with governmental and private-sector support for tourism enterprises. This prioritization aligns with prior studies conducted by Hosseini Kohnouj et al. (2021) and Akbari Arbatan (2019). In conclusion, minimizing the damages experienced by tourism enterprises and enhancing their operational vitality require a three-stage strategic framework encompassing: (1) support for production and investment through government and private-sector measures ensuring profitable and secure capital returns in line with national programs for economic growth; (2) development of institutional and informational infrastructure through short- and long-term programs designed to expand regional capacity for tourism activities; and (3) balancing environmental capabilities and tourism activities by implementing sustainable environmental management to harmonize ecological conservation with the performance of tourism enterprises. Collectively, these strategies can establish a resilient foundation for sustainable tourism development in the Oramanat border region, ensuring long-term stability, improved employment mobility, and equitable economic prosperity. توجه به توسعه کسب‌وکار در مناطق روستایی با توجه به شرایط موجود روند رو به کاهش جمعیت نواحی روستایی از اهمیت بسیاری زیادی برخوردار است. بر این اساس در روستاهای دارای پتانسیل گردشگری بررسی و شناسایی آسیب‌ها و چالش‌های تأثیرگذار بر کسب‌وکارها مربوطه به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین اقدامات ضروری جهت توسعه و بهبود وضعیت کسب‌وکارها از ضرورت‌های اولیه محسوب می‌شود. در این رابطه می‌توان نواحی روستایی منطقه اورامانات را مثال زد که به دلایلی نظیر موقعیت جغرافیایی و برگزاری مراسم مختلف با قدمت بالا، به یک مجموعه عظیم گردشگری تبدیل شده‌اند و کسب‌وکارهای زیادی در آن‌ها شکل گرفته است. با این حال کسب‌وکارهای گردشگری موجود در نواحی روستایی این منطقه همواره با چالش‌ها و مشکلات عدیده‌ای روبه‌رو بوده است که سبب شده تا اغلب کسب‌وکارهای گردشگری موجود در منطقه دارای ماندگاری و ثبات فعالیت نباشند. از همین رو در پژوهش حاضر با رویکرد توصیفی – تحلیلی سعی شده‌است تا ضمن شناسایی چالش‌های کسب‌وکار گردشگری در ابعاد اجتماعی، اقتصادی، زیست‌محیطی و مدیریتی در نواحی روستایی اورامانات، پیشنهادهای جهت برون‌رفت از وضعیت ایستا (موجود) به وضعیت مطلوب گردشگری ارائه شود. روش گردآوری اطلاعات در این پژوهش، کتابخانه‌ای- میدانی (مصاحبه، مشاهده و پرسشنامه)، بوده است. جامعه آماری پژوهش حاضر 11 روستای منطقه اورامانات که در مجموع دارای 422 کسب‌وکارهای گردشگری بوده‌اند، می‌باشد؛ که از این تعداد با استفاده از فرمول کوکران تعداد 201 فرد صاحب کسب‌وکار به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شده‌اند. در این راستا برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل از تکنیک مدیریت ریسک، برای ارزیابی و استخراج ریسک‌ها و سطح آن‌ها و سپس از مدل ارجحیت‌بندی (BWM) برای اولویت‌بندی پیشنهادها استفاده شده‌است. همچنین از نظرات و تحلیل‌های مربوط به 20 نفر کارشناس که به روش گلوله برفی انتخاب شده‌اند، نیز استفاده شده‌است. بر اساس یافته‌های پژوهش 37 ریسک در چهار بعد (اقتصادی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی، زیست‌محیطی، مدیریتی) شناسایی شده که از این 37 ریسک 31 ریسک آن معادل 7/83 درصد آن در سطح بارز (خطر جدی) تشخیص داده شده‌اند که لزوم سیاست‌گذاری و ارائه راه‌حل‌های مطلوب را طلب می‌کند. در این راستا بر پایه توانمندی‌های منطقه مورد مطالعه، 16 راه‌حل پیشنهاد شدند؛ که نتایج عملکردی حاصل از آن‌ها نشان داده است که 83/7 درصد از ریسک‌ها به سطح قابل‌قبول ارتقاء پیدا شده‌اند و تنها 16 درصد همچنان در سطح ریسک جدی باقی مانده‌اند، اما بهترین عملکرد در کاهش ریسک‌های (نبود مدیریت و عدم وضع قوانین و مقررات در جهت کاهش مخاطرات و آلودگی‌های زیست‌محیطی، عدم توجه به نیروی انسانی و نبود برنامه‌های آموزشی برای صاحبان کسب‌وکارهای گردشگری) حاصل شده‌است. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3309_2b7b82a7ec6de40781fd6ef338b41892.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 The Role of Access Network in Rural Economic Dynamics and Employment Mobility: A Case Study of Asadabad County نقش‌آفرینی شبکه دسترسی در پویایی اقتصادی و تحرک اشتغال روستایی (موردمطالعه: شهرستان اسدآباد) 155 172 3310 10.22077/vssd.2025.8178.1274 FA ناصر شفیعی ثابت دانشیار، گروه جغرافیای انسانی و آمایش، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران سیاوش مرادی مکرم گروه جغرافیای انسانی و آمایش، دانشکده علوم زمین، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران 0009-0000-1130-4331 Journal Article 2024 09 23 <strong> Introduction</strong> Rural areas in developing countries currently face numerous challenges, including high unemployment rates, population fluctuations caused by rural-to-urban migration, mismanagement of production resources, low factor productivity, and inadequate economic and social infrastructure (Meng et al., 2022: 2). Many of these challenges stem from insufficient rural access networks, which significantly constrain the dynamism of rural economies and the mobility of employment and business development. Enhancing rural access networks is therefore a key prerequisite for economic revitalization and the facilitation of employment mobility (Pourtaheri et al., 2012: 91; Bigdeli et al., 2022: 60). As a fundamental form of infrastructure, the expansion of efficient access networks plays a crucial role in fostering economic dynamism and employment, particularly in rural areas. Improving rural access infrastructure can enhance access to markets and services, reduce transportation and transaction costs, and increase the diversity of both agricultural and non-agricultural activities (Matsuura Kannari et al., 2024: 1477). In other words, developing rural access networks can boost agricultural production and non-agricultural income, thereby promoting economic vitality and income mobility (Naveed et al., 2017: 1624). Despite these advantages, the adaptation and improvement of rural access networks in Iran—particularly in rural areas such as those of Asadabad County—have received limited attention compared to urban regions and still face numerous deficiencies. Inadequacies in rural access networks have created substantial constraints for local residents across economic, social, and cultural dimensions. These constraints are especially apparent in employment, agricultural and non-agricultural activities, and access to essential services such as education and healthcare. Consequently, restricted mobility of goods and people in rural Iran, and notably in Asadabad County, has hindered opportunities for individual and collectively sustainable development. Given that a large portion of the Asadabad County population resides in rural areas, studying its access networks and improving them can play a decisive role in stimulating economic dynamism and employment mobility—particularly by facilitating the flow of agricultural and non-agricultural products from rural producers to urban markets. Accordingly, this study addresses the following key research question: How does the rural access network influence economic dynamism and employment mobility in the rural areas of Asadabad County? <strong> Methodology</strong> This study is applied in purpose and descriptive–analytical in nature, employing quantitative methods for empirical validation. Both library and field techniques were utilized for data collection. In addition to documentary research, field data were obtained via a researcher designed questionnaire, structured on a five-point Likert scale ranging from very little to very much, to assess household-level perceptions. The statistical population comprised all 99 inhabited villages in Asadabad County. Using random sampling, 30 villages were selected for inclusion in the study. Based on 7,217 households in these villages, and applying the Cochran formula with a 95% confidence level, a 5% margin of error, and variance estimation (s² = 0.25), the sample size was calculated to be 368 households. <strong> </strong> <strong> Findings</strong> The research results show that the reliability coefficients for all indicators exceed 0.70, confirming satisfactory internal consistency in the measurement model. Among the indicators, activity diversification exhibited the highest reliability, while cost reduction had the lowest. Moreover, all factor loadings exceeded 0.40, with most surpassing 0.70, indicating sound item performance and model fit. The effects of network access quality on economic dynamism and employment mobility were 0.186 and 0.411, respectively—both below the 1.96 threshold, implying a statistically insignificant direct effect of the independent variable on these outcomes. Nonetheless, the rural access network exhibited positive effects on income dynamism, cost reduction, employment mobility, and investment attraction. Thus, the improvement of rural access networks constitutes a critical guarantee for advancing economic dynamism and job mobility in the study area. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) demonstrated significant differences in value chain and access network performance among the studied villages (p < 0.05). This variation reflects differing local capacities and structural conditions influencing rural transport and economic connectivity.   <strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong> The findings confirm a positive and significant relationship between rural access-network indicators and economic dynamism. Reliability and validity assessments indicate a robust and internally stable measurement model, with diversification of activities showing the strongest reliability and cost reduction the weakest. Moreover, while the quality and service dimensions of access networks did not directly affect economic dynamism and employment mobility through cost reduction or increased investment, they nonetheless indirectly strengthened income dynamism, mobility of labor, and the capacity to attract investment. These results align with those of Khodapanahi (2020), who emphasized that a strong rural access network significantly enhances the economic vitality of rural areas, and Prus & Sikora (2021), who concluded that rural access infrastructure underpins local economic growth and employment mobility. According to participants, despite recent asphalt surfacing in several areas, existing rural roads lack sufficient quality. Physical and environmental challenges—including steep slopes, poor asphalt conditions, natural and human-induced road damage, narrow widths, mountainous terrain, winter frost, and long distances from major highways—have all diminished the effectiveness of road quality in stimulating economic dynamism and employment mobility. Moreover, deficiencies in transport services—such as a shortage of vans, small trucks, and public vehicles for the movement of goods and passengers—have escalated transport costs and further constrained local economies. Consequently, the full potential of rural transport infrastructure and related services has not yet been realized in the study area. The results clearly indicate that the more developed and higher-quality the rural access infrastructure and services are, the greater the improvements in economic dynamism and employment mobility will be. Investing in road quality, connectivity, and transport services therefore represents a crucial strategy for promoting rural sustainability and equitable development in Asadabad County. شبکه دسترسی روستایی به‌عنوان یک زیرساخت اساسی برای افزایش پویایی اقتصادی و تحرک اشتغال عمل می‌کنند. بااین‌حال، بسیاری از مناطق روستایی، از جمله مناطق روستایی موردمطالعه، با چالش‌های بسیار فراوانی مانند نرخ بالای بیکاری، نوسانات جمعیتی ناشی از مهاجرت از روستا به شهر، سوءمدیریت منابع تولید، سطح پایین بهره‌وری عوامل تولید، و ناکافی بودن اقتصادی و اجتماعی روبه‌رو هستند. زیرساخت این پژوهش به‌منظور بررسی این چالش‌ها و پر کردن شکاف میان وضعیت مطلوب و فعلی مناطق روستایی شهرستان اسدآباد، به بررسی نقش شبکه دسترسی روستایی در افزایش پویایی اقتصادی و تحرک اشتغال در مناطق روستایی این شهرستان می‌پردازد. این پژوهش توصیفی - تحلیلی و کمی بر اساس پرسش‌نامه به بررسی رابطه میان متغیرهای تأثیرگذار و تأثیرپذیر پژوهش در چارچوب 8 شاخص در سطح 30 روستا و 368 خانوار به‌شکل تصادفی می‌پردازد. پایایی پرسش‌نامه با استفاده از آلفای کرونباخ با ضرایب 769/0 و 741/0 به ترتیب برای شبکه دسترسی روستایی و پویایی اقتصادی و تحرک اشتغال ارزیابی شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از مدل سازی معادلات ساختاری (SEM) استفاده شد. یافته‌ها حاکی از تأثیر مثبت و معنادار شبکه دسترسی روستایی بر پویایی اقتصادی و تحرک اشتغال است. علاوه بر این، آزمون‌های t نشان‌می‌دهد که تنها خدمات و کیفیت شبکه دسترسی روستایی به‌طور قابل‌توجهی بر پویایی اقتصادی و تحرک اشتغال تأثیر نمی‌گذارد، در حالی که دیگر متغیرها رابطه معناداری را نشان می‌دهند. چون‌که کوهستانی بودن، شیب تند راه‌ها، آسفالت نامناسب، آسیب‌های جاده‌ای بر اثر یخ‌بندان در زمستان و غیره باعث می‌شود راه‌ها کیفیت لازم نداشته باشند. بنابراین، این مطالعه نتیجه‌گیری می‌کند که شبکه دسترسی روستایی با افزایش درآمد، کاهش هزینه‌ها، جذب سرمایه‌گذاری، افزایش تحرک اشتغال و تنوع بخشیدن به فعالیت‌های اقتصادی، نقش مهمی در تقویت پویایی اقتصاد روستایی دارند. در نتیجه ارتقای کیفیت و خدمات شبکه‌های دسترسی روستایی برای تحریک اشتغال و پویایی اقتصادی توصیه می‌شود. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3310_69386f6bb1dfed68692a24c8686939b9.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 Designing an Entrepreneurial Marketing Model for Desert Tourism Centers (Case: Target Villages of Lut Desert) طراحی مدل بازاریابی کارآفرینانه کانون های گردشگری بیابانی (مورد: روستاهای هدف بیابان لوت) 173 190 3362 10.22077/vssd.2025.8689.1296 FA فهیمه شهرکی دانشجوی دکتری کارآفرینی، گروه کارآفرینی، واحد بین المللی کیش، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، جزیره کیش، ایران 0009-0005-8987-1367 سید حسین شاکر طاهری استادیارگروه حسابداری، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران 0000-0002-9000-8019 محمدرضا کاباران زاده قدیم دانشیار گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران مرکزی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 01 02 <strong>1. Introduction</strong> Entrepreneurship development encompasses a set of private and public policies and methods that aim to accelerate, strengthen, and sustain entrepreneurial activities. Tourism, as one of the most vital sectors of modern economies, inherently relies on entrepreneurship to innovate and thrive; therefore, creating the conditions for entrepreneurship development in tourism is an essential prerequisite for growth. Among various types of tourism, cultural tourism occupies a significant position due to its ability to merge economic, social, and cultural value creation. In recent years, several initiatives have been launched to revive and develop tourism destinations in previously neglected regions of Iran, particularly in the villages surrounding the Lut Desert located across Sistan and Baluchestan (Nosrat Abad), Kerman (Shahdad), and South Khorasan (Deh Salem). The emergence of eco-lodges and community-based tourism centers in these villages has created new opportunities for local entrepreneurship. Collaborative efforts among non-governmental organizations (NGOs), local governments, and rural communities have begun to foster tourism innovation and entrepreneurial activity. However, despite these promising attempts, the tourism sector in the region has not yet achieved sustainable prosperity. This research, therefore, seeks to design an entrepreneurial marketing model specifically tailored to tourism centers in the Lut Desert region. In doing so, it builds upon prior studies emphasizing the nexus between entrepreneurship, marketing, and destination identification within the broader scope of tourism development.   <strong> Methodology</strong> This study employs a qualitative, inductive approach that seeks to conceptualize the entrepreneurial tourism marketing model as perceived by experts, entrepreneurs, local decision-makers, managers of eco-lodges, and tourism service providers operating in or around the Lut Desert. The goal is to elicit the latent mental models held by these actors and synthesize them into a comprehensive theoretical framework. Data were collected through in-depth semi-structured interviews and analyzed systematically following the Grounded Theory methodology posited by Strauss and Corbin. The analysis proceeded through three coding stages—open, axial, and selective—to identify and organize themes and relationships. The paradigmatic model served as the foundation for constructing the final entrepreneurial marketing framework, enabling the integration of causal conditions, intervening variables, strategies, and outcomes into a coherent theoretical model. <strong> </strong> <strong> Findings</strong> The qualitative analysis followed the three classical stages of coding: open, axial, and selective. In the open coding stage, preliminary data conceptualization was conducted to extract hidden meanings and to classify observations into distinct conceptual categories. The axial coding stage involved selecting a central category among those generated during open coding and establishing systematic relationships between it and other associated categories. Finally, selective coding integrated these categories to form the theoretical core of the emerging model. In the sample distribution, demographic analysis showed that 70% (35 individuals) of respondents were male, with an average age of 39 years, and 30% (15 individuals) were female, with an average age of 35 years. From the collected data, 58 initial concepts were identified and subsequently clustered into 23 major categories. These categories were derived from semantic units representing the essential dimensions of entrepreneurial tourism marketing in the Lut region. The analysis identified several key factors as central components of the model, including Environmental dimensions of the tourism destination, Tourism planning and entrepreneurship, Destination-based entrepreneurship, Lived experiences, Integrated and sound management, Financial resources, Active civil society operating under good governance, Decision-making in regeneration and its impacts, and Legal, communicational, and informational factors. Together, these categories form the core variables of the conceptual model for entrepreneurial tourism marketing in desert ecotourism contexts.   <strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong> Following the development of the grounded theoretical model, a questionnaire was designed based on the extracted conceptual framework. The model was further validated using structural equation modeling (SEM) to measure the strength of relationships among its components. The analysis revealed that the coefficient of the effect of intervening variables on the entrepreneurial marketing model was 0.371, suggesting a weak and statistically insignificant influence compared with other components. In contrast, the direct effect of social partnership and the social dimension was 0.563, indicating a relatively strong impact. The destination status exerted the strongest direct influence on entrepreneurial tourism marketing (coefficient = 0.610). These results affirm that the image formed in travelers’ minds, shaped by the attractions and conditions of the destination and reinforced by social interaction, significantly affects the evolution of entrepreneurial marketing in the Lut region. In particular, community-driven ecotourism experiences—such as those found in Deh Salem, where local tourism social partnerships have emerged—play a decisive role in identifying community needs and developing local capacity to meet them. The concept of tourism experience providers refers to enterprises that package and offer integrated tourism products—such as regional cuisine, handicrafts, and souvenirs—to tourists. These providers often implement social innovation models of “package delivery”, transferring technical expertise to community stakeholders and adapting it to local conditions. This process enhances local skills, fosters knowledge creation, and strengthens entrepreneurial competencies. Accordingly, the promotion of tourism entrepreneurship in the Lut Desert region depends heavily on capacity-building for local communities, the integration of social participation mechanisms, and the linkage between destination attributes and marketing innovation. Empowering local actors through knowledge transfer and participatory management will not only enrich tourism experiences but also ensure the sustainability and competitiveness of desert ecotourism in Iran’s emerging tourism economy. کارآفرینان گردشگری در مقیاس کوچک نقش مهمی در توسعه مقاصد گردشگری طبیعی، به‌ویژه در زمینه بیابان‌گردی، ایفا می‌کنند. ایجاد مدل‌های تجاری رقابتی و استراتژی‌های بازاریابی می‌تواند برای موفقیت این کارآفرینان و همچنین مقاصد طبیعی که در آن‌ها فعالیت می‌کنند، بسیار حائز اهمیت باشد. پهنه بیابان لوت، واقع در میان سه استان و روستاهای شاخص بیابان‌گردی شامل خراسان جنوبی (ده سلم)، کرمان (شهداد) و سیستان و بلوچستان (آبخوران)، دارای ظرفیت‌های منحصر به فردی برای توسعه گردشگری است. یکی از چالش‌های اصلی در رونق و ارتقاء گردشگری در این کانون‌ها، بازاریابی سنتی و نسبتاً ضعیف گردشگری و کارآفرینی است. بنابراین، توسعه دانش در مورد مدل‌های کسب‌وکار برای کارآفرینان گردشگری طبیعت‌گرا نیازمند یک رویکرد نظری جایگزین است. این پژوهش با هدف طراحی مدل بازاریابی کارآفرینانه کانون‌های گردشگری، با استفاده از روش توصیفی-تحلیلی و مدل داده تئوری داده بنیاد، بین 50 نفر از نخبگان، کارآفرینان و تورگردانان در روستاهای ده سلم، شهداد و آبخوران انجام شده است. نتایج این پژوهش نشان داد که شرایط علی مؤثر بر طراحی مدل بازاریابی کارآفرینانه شامل ابعاد اجتماعی، شرایط مقصد، توسعه گردشگری مقصد و رشد کارآفرینی می‌باشد. همچنین، شرایط مداخله‌گر شامل برقراری ارتباط، سرمایه‌گذاری جدید و پیش‌بینی‌پذیری است. شرایط زمینه‌ای نیز شامل جمع‌آوری منابع، سرمایه‌های انسانی موجود در مقصد و بهره‌وری می‌باشد. در نهایت، شایسته‌سالاری، ایجاد موازین حسن اجرای بهینه، سرعت و دقت، و ارتقاء کارآفرینی و گردشگری به‌عنوان پیامدهای راهبردی شناخته می‌شوند. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3362_39cd7b469beae7c617c73e0d008195ef.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 Analysis of Structural-Functional Changes in the Villages of Tonekabon County with an Emphasis on the Agricultural Sector تحلیل تغییرات ساختاری-کارکردی روستاهای شهرستان تنکابن با تأکید بر بخش کشاورزی 191 218 3467 10.22077/vssd.2025.8930.1304 FA ثمره سلیمانی نژاد گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران امید جمشیدی استادیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران 0000-0002-0307-0173 فاطمه شفیعی استادیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشکده علوم زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران Journal Article 2025 02 11 <strong>. Introduction</strong><br />Rural communities have historically represented the primary and most enduring form of human social organization, playing a vital role in meeting subsistence and economic needs. However, in recent decades, economic, social, and technological transformations have brought profound changes to the structure and functions of villages. Rural transformation encompasses a broad array of shifts, including modifications in agricultural practices, changes in land use patterns, population migration between sectors and regions, and the emergence of dynamic new interactions between the agricultural sector and non-agricultural activities. These functional transformations are influenced by multiple factors that vary according to each country’s level of socioeconomic development. Mazandaran Province, as one of Iran’s most productive agricultural regions, has long contributed significantly to crop and livestock production. Nevertheless, rural and agricultural areas within this province—particularly those in Tonekabon County—have undergone extensive structural and functional changes in recent decades. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to analyze the trends in structural and functional transformations occurring in the villages of Tonekabon County over the past two decades. Furthermore, the study seeks to identify and evaluate the key factors driving these transformations, with particular attention to their socio-economic and physical implications for rural development.<br /> <br /><br /><strong> Methodology</strong><br /><br />This research is applied in purpose and employs a survey-based, non-experimental design. The statistical population comprises 10,737 rural households living in the Mir Shamsuddin and Galijahan districts of Tonekabon County. The sample size was determined using Daniel’s (2011) formula, resulting in 246 household heads; after excluding incomplete responses, 250 valid questionnaires were ultimately analyzed. Sampling was conducted using a multi-stage stratified method with proportional allocation. Among the seven districts of Tonekabon County, the two selected districts were chosen due to their larger populations and greater diversity in rural conditions. Sample households were distributed proportionally based on village population within each district. For assessing structural–functional changes, data covering the period 2001–2021 were analyzed using the Beaujeu-Garnier method. In addition, a researcher-developed questionnaire was administered to evaluate perceived changes from the perspective of rural residents. Instrument validity was established through expert review, while reliability was confirmed via Cronbach’s alpha coefficient, indicating acceptable internal consistency.<br /><strong> </strong><br /><br /><strong> Findings</strong><br /><br />The findings reveal that Tonekabon County maintained a primarily agricultural character until around 2006, but has since transitioned into a multi-functional region, with a growing emphasis on commerce and services—marking a steady decline in agriculture’s economic centrality. Rural household heads reported key trends underpinning this shift: a shrinking share of the population engaged in farming, degradation of villages’ historical fabric, declining agricultural income relative to household expenses, and a surge in land-use conversion and construction coinciding with reduced crop, horticultural, and livestock output. Statistical analysis confirmed significant relationships: older respondents perceived greater structural–functional change (positive correlation at the 1% level), while smaller landholders reported more pronounced shifts (negative correlation at the 1% level). Additionally, functional changes were strongly linked—at the 1% significance level—to economic–livelihood, socio-cultural, and physical–structural factors, but showed no significant association with environmental–ecological or political–institutional dimensions. Together, these findings indicate that economic reorientation, sociocultural dynamics, and physical restructuring are the dominant forces reshaping rural Tonekabon.<br /> <br /><br /><strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong><br /><br />The study confirms that villages in Tonekabon County have undergone significant structural and functional transformations over the past two decades, most notably marked by a sharp decline in agricultural activity—evidenced by reduced cultivation, orchard productivity, and livestock breeding. These changes are driven by shifting household consumption patterns, the economic decline of traditional livelihoods like animal husbandry and handicrafts, and a growing preference for non-agricultural employment. Compounding these trends, rising land prices and the conversion of farmland into residential and industrial uses, while offering short-term financial gains for some landowners, jeopardize long-term rural resilience by undermining food security, fostering latent unemployment, accelerating rural–urban migration, and increasing reliance on food imports. To counter these challenges, the study urges targeted policy interventions, including financial and credit support for farmers, promotion of sustainable agricultural technologies, economic incentives to curb farmland conversion, and development of agro-processing and alternative rural employment opportunities. Complementary investments in rural infrastructure, health, education, and public awareness of sustainability principles are also vital for enhancing social cohesion and quality of life. Finally, active engagement of NGOs and local community organizations in development planning and implementation is recommended to foster inclusive, resilient, and sustainable rural futures in Tonekabon County. جامعه روستایی از دیرباز نقش اساسی در تأمین نیازهای معیشتی و اقتصادی داشته است اما تحولات اقتصادی، اجتماعی و فناوری در دهه‌های اخیر، تغییرات قابل‌توجهی را در ساختار و کارکرد آن به وجود آورده است. هدف تحقیق حاضر تحلیل تغییرات ساختاری-کارکردی روستاهای شهرستان تنکابن با تاکید بر بخش کشاورزی بود. این تحقیق از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش گردآوری داده‌ها، به شیوه پیمایشی انجام شد. جامعه آماری شامل ۱۰۷۳۷ خانوار روستایی ساکن در دو دهستان شهرستان تنکابن بوده است. حجم نمونه با بهره‌گیری از فرمول دنیل۲۵۰ نفر تعیین و نمونه‌ها به روش نمونه‌گیری طبقه‌ای چندمرحله‌ای با تخصیص متناسب انتخاب شدند. برای بررسی وضعیت تغییرات ساختاری-کارکردی از داده‌های موجود در افق زمانی 1380 تا 1400 استفاده شد. همچنین برای بررسی وضعیت تغییرات از دید افراد نمونه از پرسشنامه محقق‌ساخته بهره گرفته شد. برای اطمینان از روایی ابزار تحقیق، از پنل متخصصین استفاده شد و پایایی ابزار، با استفاده از ضریب آلفای کرونباخ مورد تایید قرار گرفت. در تحقیق حاضر برای تعیین ساختار غالب اقتصادی شهرستان تنکابن از روش بوژوگارینه استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که شهرستان تنکابن تا دوره 1385 دارای نقش غالب کشاورزی بوده است اما پس آن و طی دوره دهه 90 به بعد تبدیل به یک شهرستان چندنقشی شده است و به نظر می‌رسد طی دوره‌های آتی به سمت نقش بازرگانی یا خدماتی حرکت خواهد نمود. این امر حاکی از کاهش نقش کشاورزی در ساختار غالب اقتصادی شهرستان خواهد بود. براساس نتایج در روستاهای مورد مطالعه، جمعیت روستایی فعال در کشاورزی، بافت تاریخی روستاها و  درآمد کشاورزی به نسبت هزینه‌های خانوار عموماً کاهش یافته است. این درحالی است که از دید افراد نمونه تغییر کاربری اراضی و ساخت و ساز در روستا طی دوره مذکور به شدت افزایش یافته است و همزمان میزان تولید و عملکرد محصولات زراعی، باغی و دامی کاهش یافته است.  https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3467_2a2717956118b4d223ceca17ce3865e2.pdf

دانشگاه بیرجند روستا و توسعه پایدار فضا 2717-350X 6 3 2025 09 23 Analysis of Sustainable Development in Peri-Urban Villages Using the Structural Analysis and Future-Oriented Steps Approach (Case Study: Villages Surrounding Bojnord City) تحلیل وضعیت توسعه پایدار روستاهای پیراشهری با روش تحلیل ساختار و گام آینده محور (مطالعه مورد: روستاهای پیرامون شهر بجنورد) 219 240 3623 10.22077/vssd.2025.8576.1289 FA رمضانعلی نادری مایوان استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه کوثر بجنورد، بجنورد، ایران 0000-0003-3467-8584 Journal Article 2024 12 19 <strong> Introduction</strong> Urban–rural linkage is a dynamic phenomenon emerging from the two-way interaction between urban centers and rural settlements within a regional context. These interactions manifest through various flows—people, goods, information, technology, and innovation—and play a fundamental role in shaping spatial and socioeconomic transformations. In the theoretical context, studies of such flows, particularly in developing countries, highlight their vital role in diversifying and strengthening rural employment structures. Consequently, the interdependence between cities and villages, and the design of development policies that reduce poverty while enhancing the positive impact of urban centers on surrounding rural areas, have become central themes in the discourse of development planning. Generally, the contribution of cities to rural development is realized through systems of connectivity and interaction between urban and rural areas. New development paradigms, particularly those emphasizing network-based and spatially integrated growth, stress the importance of such linkages. Despite the crucial role rural areas play in urban and regional economic development, rural development itself has often received inadequate attention. The villages surrounding Bojnord City, located in northeastern Iran, exemplify this duality—possessing considerable potentials and capacities on one hand, yet facing persistent challenges on the other. Among the major challenges are population decline due to rural–urban migration, climate change and water scarcity, and the absence of a coherent and comprehensive rural development plan. Migration is largely driven by limited employment opportunities, weak infrastructure, inadequate educational and healthcare services, and a resulting decrease in the active labor force—all of which have deeply undermined the social and economic structures of rural communities. Consequently, the intergenerational continuity of knowledge and traditions has been disrupted, leading to the erosion of regional identity and cultural heritage. Despite these difficulties, these villages retain significant potential for growth through agriculture, livestock farming, and tourism, sectors that can serve as the foundation for sustainable rural development. Therefore, a comprehensive and strategic approach is required to empower these villages, grounded in the principles of sustainability, local capacity enhancement, and effective resource governance. Accordingly, the objectives of this research are twofold: To identify and analyze the most influential variables that have direct and indirect impacts on the sustainable development of villages surrounding Bojnord City. To explore, through scenario analysis, how different development pathways—economic, social, and environmental—might shape the future of these rural areas in relation to Bojnord City’s growth dynamics.   <strong> Methodology</strong> This study employs a descriptive–analytical, mixed-methods approach with a practical orientation to examine the sustainable development of villages surrounding Bojnord City. Drawing on an extensive literature review and expert consultation, 57 key variables were initially identified. A purposive sample of 25 experts—15 in urban studies and 10 in rural development—participated in the analysis, completing a 57×57 structural influence matrix to assess inter-variable relationships. Using MICMAC (Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification) software, the analysis revealed the causal hierarchy of variables and pinpointed core driving forces; after two iterations, the reliability coefficient reached 81.1911, indicating strong internal consistency. To project future trajectories, the Delphi method was integrated with MICMAC outputs in a structured scenario-building process that included: (1) data collection from documentary sources, expert interviews, and regional plans; (2) systematic identification and classification of influential variables; (3) MICMAC-based analysis of influence–dependence dynamics; and (4) development of multiple alternative scenarios reflecting plausible development pathways for the region.   <strong> Findings</strong> The analysis of factors influencing the sustainable development of rural areas surrounding Bojnord City yielded several key insights. Economically, the province’s strategic border location, the expansion of cross-border markets, and targeted job creation initiatives have substantially improved rural livelihoods, fostering economic dynamism and diversification. In terms of physical infrastructure, access to safe drinking water, adequate housing, reliable transportation networks, and high-speed internet connectivity has proven essential—not only for enhancing residents’ quality of life but also for ensuring equitable access to public services and broader market opportunities. Public services, particularly the availability of quality education and healthcare, directly contribute to social well-being, human capital development, and the long-term resilience of these communities. Effective governance and sound policymaking at the provincial level—especially in the fair and strategic allocation of resources—emerge as critical enablers of balanced and inclusive rural development. However, natural factors present significant challenges: recurring droughts and associated water scarcity severely constrain agricultural productivity and threaten the ecological foundation of sustainability in the region. To explore future trajectories, a scenario analysis was conducted, which identified ten plausible development pathways. Of these, only two were classified as favorable, five as catastrophic, and three as intermediate. This distribution underscores a highly uncertain and precarious sustainability outlook for the peri-urban villages around Bojnord. The volatility of key drivers—especially water availability, employment stability, and agricultural viability—reveals a fragile equilibrium. Without timely and targeted interventions, the region risks tipping toward adverse outcomes, highlighting the urgent need for adaptive policies, integrated resource management, and proactive investment in resilience-building measures.   <strong> Discussion and Conclusion</strong> The findings underscore that the sustainable development of villages surrounding Bojnord City hinges critically on macro-level governance, effective water resource management, and proactive employment creation policies. Structural analysis and scenario simulations reveal a largely pessimistic outlook, with five out of ten identified scenarios classified as catastrophic—particularly concerning employment, agriculture, border trade, drought resilience, and access to potable water. While domains such as macro-management, health, and education currently show intermediate performance, they too are trending toward decline without timely and effective interventions. If these challenges remain unaddressed, the region faces escalating rural depopulation, environmental degradation, and the erosion of local economic foundations. In response, the study proposes three key strategies: strengthening supportive policies for sustainable agriculture, rural tourism, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to generate local jobs and stabilize incomes; leveraging the province’s strategic border location to foster cross-border trade and stimulate rural economies; and significantly expanding investment in critical infrastructure and public services—especially water supply, transportation, and education—to reduce spatial inequalities and elevate living standards. By implementing these integrated measures, policymakers can shift the region away from fragile, high-risk pathways and toward resilient, self-reliant, and demographically stable rural communities in the Bojnord periphery.   شهرها اگرچه به‌عنوان محرکی برای توسعه پایدار روستاها قلمداد می‌شوند، اما در صورت عدم مدیریت صحیح می‌توانند به چالش‌هایی جدی برای هر دو محیط شهری و روستایی تبدیل شوند. شناخت این چالش‌ها و تلاش برای کاهش اثرات منفی آن‌ها بر روی ساختار و کارکرد سکونتگاه‌های روستایی، از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. پژوهش حاضر باهدف ارزیابی وضعیت توسعه پایدار روستاهای پیرامون شهر بجنورد و شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر آن، از روش تحلیل ساختار و سناریونویسی استفاده نموده است. باتوجه‌به ماهیت تحقیق، افراد نمونه (20 نفر) از میان کارشناسان متخصص به روش گلوله برفی انتخاب شد. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها با بهره‌گیری از مدل MicMac، عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر توسعه پایدار این روستاها شناسایی و روابط بین آن‌ها تحلیل شد. برای تدوین سناریوها از نرم‌افزارMorphol استفاده‌شده است. سپس از بین دو هزار سناریوی دارای اعتبار، پنج سناریو دارای مقاومت بالا در برابر تغییرات انتخاب گردید که سناریو اول با بالاترین درصد احتمال وقوع و تکرار بالا 90% مورد تحلیل قرار گرفت. تحلیل سناریوها حاکی از آن است که شهر بجنورد به‌عنوان مرکز استان، علی‌رغم پتانسیل‌های موجود، هنوز نتوانسته به‌عنوان یک پیشران قوی در توسعه پایدار روستاهای اطراف عمل کند. توسعه پایدار روستاهای پیرامون بجنورد با بیشترین سناریوی بدبینانه(5 عدد) در زمینه‌های (اشتغال، کشاورزی، موقعیت مرزی، خشکسالی، منابع آب شرب) مواجه هستند. همچنین در زمینه (مدیریت کلان، خدمات درمانی و آموزشی) با وضعیت بینابینی مواجه است که با توجه به روند موجود به سمت وضعیت بدبینانه در حال تغییر وضعیت هستند. جهت دستیابی به توسعه پایدار در روستاهای مورد مطالعه، پیشنهاد می‌شود که سیاست‌های حمایتی از بخش کشاورزی، منابع آبی، گردشگری و صنایع کوچک و متوسط تقویت شود، در زیرساخت‌های روستایی سرمایه‌گذاری شود و مشارکت جوامع محلی در تصمیم‌گیری‌ها افزایش یابد. https://vssd.birjand.ac.ir/article_3623_ecdcd675b3a4cbb5578baf72f255ec21.pdf